Transactions with negative interest rates accounting. Negative rates have stunned the financial world

Negative rates became a reality in the modern financial world a few years ago. Dreaming of financial stability, many Russians do not even imagine what amazing (in our opinion today) forms it takes on in prosperous countries. There, in an almost inflation-free economy, depositors sometimes do not receive income from their bank investments, but on the contrary, sometimes they themselves pay the bank for the service of storing money in an account. Will he get there? new reality to Russia, and under what conditions will this become possible?

Bold experiments

Actually, human history I already knew the times when, when accepting capital for storage, its “guardian” took a fee from the owner for his deposit services. This is how banking began many centuries ago, when gold was the only reserve currency. Already in our time, the German economist of the early 20th century Silvio Gesell was the first to theorize the idea of ​​negative deposit interest at the state level. His free money model involved a small regular payment by citizens to the state for money issue(as payment for government services). However, the loan interest was completely reset to zero. Money, thus, ceased to serve as a store of value, accelerating its turnover in the economy.

And although a completely successful practical experiment “according to Gesell” took place on the territory of several Austrian cities in the 30-40s of the last century, yet modern economists even 10 years ago considered it unthinkable that negative rates will become reality XXI century. The idea of ​​financial demurrage still makes many people twirl their fingers at their temples. In the minds of most of us best case scenario at least a zero rate is required. However, the national bank of Sweden, the Riksbank, in 2009 became the first modern central bank that began to charge its ward credit institutions a fee for money accepted from them into correspondent accounts, i.e. thus introduced a negative deposit rate at minus 0.25% per annum. Which, however, did not yet mean an unambiguous and immediate extrapolation of negative returns on bank deposits for citizens and corporations.

Countries and rates

Since then, the Swedish model has been gradually adopted by the Central Banks of other economic developed countries, who, after watching the pioneer for a bit, began to introduce extraordinary methods at home in 2012-2016. Negative rates have already been tried (following Sweden) by Switzerland, Japan, and Denmark. However, their key rates do not stand still, they change (by Russian view almost imperceptibly - by hundredths or tenths of a percent), sometimes popping up to a positive level just above zero.

If we talk about the experience of the pan-European ECB, then two years ago it lowered its deposit rate for the first time from 0% to minus 0.1%, while simultaneously maintaining base rate within the range of 0.15-0.25%. Positive bank rates in Canada, the USA, Great Britain, Norway are still hovering around zero... Their regulators are only looking closely at the experience of others. At the same time, there are already American and European government bonds with negative yields (it turns out that investors pay extra to governments for storing their capital). Looking back a little, we will see that the Japanese regulator, long before the Swedish innovations, kept its deposit interest at the lower level of 0.1% for several years in a row in 2001-2006, without even thinking that it would ever enter the negative zone.

Why does the government need negative rates?

What is the reason for such an amazing interest rate policy? Do Western banks really have so much money that they decided to turn depositors against themselves and bribe borrowers with a small commission, instead of earning money on loan interest? After all, the policy of negative interest rates of the Central Bank is not immediately, but gradually transferred to relations between commercial banks and their clients.

To understand, let us remember the conditions under which the Swedish Riksbank began its bold experiment. 2009 is the year of the ongoing global financial crisis, during which investors lost confidence and stopped investing in real economy, hiding their capital in quiet, safe bank deposits. Almost zero inflation generally developed into deflation, which by that time had reached, in particular, in Sweden a level of minus 0.9%. In response, the economy stopped growing: in addition to GDP, wages, the number of jobs, and demand for goods and services stopped growing. Demand for loans also fell, as potential borrowers were afraid that the crisis would prevent them from paying off their debts in the future. Banks accumulated unclaimed liquidity, which almost stopped working and making a profit.

Measures were required to stimulate economic growth. To restart the economy, theorists have calculated the effective rate of the target inflation rate close to 2% per annum (as strange as this may sound to a Russian who is shocked by the mere fact that inflation in some countries is deliberately raised from negative values). At the same time, the national currency must be protected from sharp exchange rate fluctuations, which is not easy. Economists believe that the introduction of negative interest rates will encourage citizens and corporations to take out loans, forgetting fears of loss of solvency. A negative deposit rate may force people to withdraw capital from risk-free bank deposits to invest in real business, for example, in real estate construction. Thus, the long-awaited growth of added value should begin, which will also bring profit to investors.

What is good for the borrower?– then it’s bad for the investor

It is clear that not every Western bank has yet boldly transferred the policy of negative rates to relationships with its ordinary clients, as the state regulator does with supervised credit institutions. Not every private bank is willing to pay borrowers or charge its depositors. But let's see how this happens in life using only a few known examples.

Almost four years ago, the Danish Central Bank introduced a negative base rate (analogous to our key rate), which today has changed to minus 0.65% (with inflation in 2014-2015 plus 0.6%). One ordinary Danish mortgage holder, who took out a home loan more than 10 years ago, was very surprised when at the end of last year the bank paid him a small bonus, instead of Once again calculate credit interest. At the same time floating annual rate His bank's mortgage program was approximately +0.56% per annum at this point. However, according to the mortgage agreement, the client must regularly pay additional commission fees to the bank.

The exact name of that person has not been established European bank, which was the first to charge its investors interest for storing money. Journalists suggest that it was one of the Swiss credit institutions. They say that a negative deposit rate is charged there for amounts over 10 million Swiss francs. According to other sources, the minimum threshold is only 100 thousand CHF, but already in several banks. The introduction of a negative interest rate for deposit operations is now being discussed in many European countries, incl. in Spain, far from total prosperity.

Side effects

It seems that paid deposits are still a headache for wealthy VIP clients. It's them large sums it is difficult to completely convert it into a cache by hiding everything, for example, in a safe. Cashing out costs may be more expensive than negative percentage. The average population may not be affected by this rate. Citizens of economically developed countries have long been accustomed to almost zero rates. Their deposits often increase by only tenths of a percent, approximately equal to our demand deposit rates.

It is also not yet clear how long the era of negative rates will last, how effective it is and whether it is applicable to different economies. After all, along the way, problems have worsened that are not always resolved quickly and successfully. For example, almost zero interest rates could lead to another real estate credit bubble. However, there is reason to believe that Western central banks will find a reasonable solution and will be able to turn monetary policy in the right direction in a timely manner.

Are negative rates possible in Russia?

Russian investors may not be afraid of “paid” deposits for a long time. High level inflation, and other numerous risks of the domestic economy, do not yet provide grounds for introducing nominally negative rates in our country. In addition, one of the conditions for the emergence of “good” deflation is a reduction in production costs (for example, due to the introduction of IT technologies), and not a fall in the effective demand of the population.

But de facto, the problems of our investors, although they lie on a slightly different plane, still make us fear the decrease in the value of savings over time. For example, there is a known imbalance between the deposit rate and the price growth index, when inflation eats up the value of invested money, sometimes more than the deposit interest covers this depreciation. And foreign currency deposits (whose low rates are already approaching European ones) do not always save from inflation and devaluation. Especially considering the sharp fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate up and down and the authorities’ intention to prevent the ruble from strengthening so as not to increase the Russian budget deficit, which is heavily dependent on hydrocarbon exports.

Experts suggest that the downward trend in deposit interest rates in Russian banks will continue this year. However, not to negative values, at least nominally. The Chairman of the Bank of Russia fears that inflation in the Russian Federation (calculated by Rosstat) will remain stuck at 6-7% per annum for a long time. Target In terms of inflation, the Central Bank uses an average figure of 4% by the end of 2017. And some independent economists predict the start of growth in the domestic economy no earlier than 2020, and then only under certain conditions.

Oksana Lukyanets, expert at Vkladvbanke.ru

To Russians complaining about high rates mortgage loans, one can only envy the Europeans, some of whom banks pay extra “in gratitude” for the loan taken. The first bank to switch to negative lending rates was Nordea Bank. This happened in Denmark at the beginning of last year. Since then, at least two other banks in Belgium - BNP Paribas and ING - have paid extra to their clients. In particular, this was recently reported by Het Neuwsblad. The banks in question argued that the negative rates only affected a “limited number of contracts.”

These situations arise for loans with floating interest rate(this is basically mortgage loans), depending on key and interbank rates, explains Natalya Pavlunina, head of the retail products department of the department retail business Loko-bank.

When, for example, the key rate reaches negative values, the interest rate on the loan also becomes negative. The current values ​​of the European interbank offered rate Euribor and a number of others have become negative and, depending on the period, range from -0.348% per month to -0.012% per year, notes Konstantin Petrov, CEO of VTB Registrar JSC. Accordingly, if a number of banks in their loan agreements have tied client rates to Euribor, then it turns out that it is no longer the client to the bank, but the bank that must pay the client for giving him a loan.

Negative rates on the interbank market and the entire phenomenon of negative rates in general are a consequence of the ultra-soft monetary policy pursued by the European Central Bank (as well as the central banks of other developed countries). “The central banks of most developed countries have been pursuing expansionary monetary policies over the past five years, reducing lending rates to a minimum and introducing negative rates. The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are trying to stimulate the economy with negative rates. Central banks of European countries (Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark) use negative deposit rates to reduce capital inflows and adjust the exchange rate of national currencies against the euro,” notes Dmitry Monastyrshin, chief analyst of the analytical department of Promsvyazbank.

The European Central Bank has undertaken new round weakening its policies at a meeting on March 10 this year. He lowered the key rate from 0.05% to zero, and the deposit rate was lowered from -0.3 to -0.4%. In addition, the volume of asset repurchases from the market was expanded from €60 billion to €80 billion per month. The de facto head of Mario Draghi did not rule out introducing a negative key rate. “Looking ahead, taking into account the current forecast for price stability, the Governing Council expects the ECB's key interest rates to remain at or above current low levels over a long period of time,” he said.

A negative rate (on deposits) should ideally stimulate commercial banks lend more, and not save money in accounts with the Central Bank. The population, for whom the return on deposits is decreasing, must spend more, which, coupled with the emission pumping, should accelerate inflation to the target 2% and increase the income of the corporate sector.

In practice, things don't work out so smoothly. The population does not spend, but saves, but increasingly prefers to keep money in demand accounts (this requires banks to have a large amount of liquidity, which is unprofitable) or even keeps it at home in the form of cash. Inflation is not growing (deflation has already been recorded several times in the eurozone this year), as cheap energy resources are pulling consumer prices down.
Analysts at Bank of America believe that “so far, negative interest rates have failed to raise inflation expectations in the eurozone, Switzerland and Japan, and have shown only marginal effectiveness in this regard in Sweden.”

Alan Greenspan, the former head of the Federal Reserve, noted in one of his interviews with Bloomberg that negative rates lead to a reduction in capital expenditures, and low investment does not allow increasing labor productivity. The result is low economic growth rates. Banks are forced to invest money in highly liquid government bonds, but their yield is often also negative. The German magazine Der Spiegel provides the following data. There are currently €2.6 trillion worth of negative-yielding bonds traded in the eurozone. When purchasing seven-year German government bonds, an investor will lose €2 per thousand every year. It turns out to be a vicious circle that only leads to a drop in income in the banking system.

Dangerous experiment

Analysts at the American bank Morgan Stanley called the ECB's negative rates " dangerous experiment" “We believe that the potential decline in banking profitability due to low benchmark and negative deposit rates will be a major risk factor for European banks in 2016,” Morgan Stanley said. Russian analysts also do not see anything good in negative rates. Konstantin Petrov believes that the current financial policy of artificial economic stimulation through ultra-low rates and increasing the money supply in the context of a decrease in real production does not lead to inflation, but to deflation and the continuation of speculative growth in stock markets, where excess liquidity is concentrated. This may negatively affect the stability of banks and, instead of stimulating economic growth, lead only to prolonged stagnation. “This could ultimately lead to big problems in the financial infrastructure and the next round of the financial crisis,” he believes.
Andrey Shenk, an analyst at Alfa Capital Management Company, believes that stories with negative client rates are one-time anomalies and such loans will not be carried out on a mass scale, so these particular cases do not pose a threat to the banking system. But globally negative rates create certain risks, including forcing banks to adjust their approach to risk management, increasing exposure to risk in order to compensate for the decrease in income from falling rates and to place excess liquidity, he notes.

“As a result of this, bubbles may inflate in the markets, which will ultimately at least complicate the process of normalizing monetary policy, and in a bad scenario may provoke new waves of crisis,” Andrei Shenk fears.

At the same time, analysts believe that banks will not put up with negative rates. “It is unlikely that banks will allow this phenomenon to become widespread,” believes Konstantin Petrov. Dmitry Monastyrshin draws attention to the fact that since banks in developed countries have the opportunity to attract funds from clients and regulators at negative rates, banks manage to maintain margins on client contracts, even if the rate on them goes negative. It is worth noting that even with negative loan rates, the client will most likely have to pay the bank a small amount in addition to the principal debt due to the presence of service fees. “However, the situation when the lender pays the borrowers is inherently absurd and bankers in the relevant countries are already taking measures to protect their capital,” notes Natalya Pavlunina. According to her, a number of European banks have already supplemented their mortgage lending conditions, fixing the minimum possible value of the loan rate, and also turned to regulators for clarification and the possibility of changing legislation. The only question that remains unanswered is how the financial system will fare if the ECB and other regulators continue to ease their monetary policy and inflation and the economy do not recover.

The Russian banking community came up with the idea of ​​introducing negative interest rates on deposits in foreign currency. The Central Bank did not support the initiative. As a result, banks may refuse to accept deposits in euros from the public.

Why is the Central Bank against

​Commenting on its decision, the Central Bank gave two arguments. Firstly, “the practice of establishing negative rates exists only in certain eurozone countries and for individual transactions”; secondly, this could “lead to the accumulation of large volumes of foreign exchange liquidity outside the banking system,” that is, to the growth of the shadow foreign exchange market.

The Central Bank may have other reasons to object to the introduction of negative rates on client foreign currency funds, bankers say. “In addition to the business component, there is an image component. Many clients, especially individuals, may perceive negative rates negatively,” says Andrey Stepanenko, deputy chairman of the board of Raiffeisenbank. Sberbank chief analyst Mikhail Matovnikov agrees that “the emergence of negative rates is quite a serious negative.”

The banking community can solve the problem on our own. It is easier for bankers to stop attracting liquidity in euros by removing the corresponding deposits from their product line for individuals, market participants indicate. “As for individuals, the solution may be to stop attracting new deposits in euros,” Stepanenko told RBC, adding that Raiffeisenbank is considering this possibility. In his opinion, other players may also choose this strategy. As a result, Russians' ability to diversify their savings will decrease.

However, so far there is no consensus in the banking community on this matter. Sberbank and Citibank declined to comment on plans for rates. “As for VTB24 and the retail business of VTB Bank, in the near future we will adjust the profitability foreign currency deposits is not planned,” said a VTB Group representative.

It will be more difficult for banks to follow the same path in relation to legal entities. “Good corporate clients are critical for most banks, and no one will refuse them due to losses on attracted euros. Banks will have to solve this problem by improving the functioning of their treasuries,” a manager at one of the banks included in the top 30 in terms of assets told RBC.

In his opinion, the problem did not appear yesterday, but with proper management of liquidity flows, it can be resolved. “Most likely, the association’s appeal to the Central Bank was caused by a surge in the influx of liquidity in euros from clients of some specific banks, which they quite reasonably supported with a reference to the general difficult situation on the market.”

It is possible, notes RBC’s interlocutor, that in recent months the situation has been aggravated by Russian companies accumulating foreign currency in their accounts, including euros, to pay external debts. In the first quarter of 2017, according to the Central Bank, these payments should amount to more than 15 billion in dollar equivalent.

Before you understand how negative interest rates work and why they are needed, you should understand the very understanding of what they are.

A negative interest rate is a real interest rate set by the bank in conditions of inflation and equal to the difference between the announced rate and the inflation rate that exceeds it. And speaking in simple words- this is the percentage that the bank withdraws from clients who hold deposits for the fact that they provide the bank with the opportunity to use their personal funds.

Who would agree to this? What is it for? The answer is quite simple and prosaic. When a situation arises in a state’s economy in which the rise in inflation is so high that holding cash threatens to lose most of the money, people begin to look for the least risks for themselves and their finances. Such situations have already been observed in regions where weak economic growth prevails, for example, in the countries of the European Union. Thus, seeking security for their savings, people come to the conclusion that they either need to agree to the bank's terms, paying a negative interest rate on their deposits, but at the same time keeping their savings to a greater extent than if they kept them in cash. Or switch to alternative money substitutes, such as gold, silver, diamonds, real estate and antiques, futures, stocks and bonds.

At the same time, it is beneficial for the banking system of any country that people do not save their funds and accumulate them, but constantly spend them, which will lead to an increase in the issuance of loans, and hence the profitability of banks. A similar situation can be observed in the United States, when a prolonged decline in the economy leads to citizens taking out less and less loans and increasingly trying to save money in order to have a reserve of personal funds in case of unforeseen situations or “hard times”. Having low profitability compared to previous periods, banks are losing a lot and are trying in every possible way to encourage people to use the credit system. It is clear that when the banking system collapses or decreases in profitability, the economy of the entire country also suffers, since the banking sector is one of the most profitable sectors of the state. This is why introducing a negative rate is very beneficial for banks.

Let's look at an example: if a bank accepts deposits at -6% per annum, but issues loans at -2%, then in any case it always remains in the black by 4%, which will naturally go into the pockets of bankers and the state. Thus, we see that regardless of whether the rates are positive or negative, the bank always remains in the black.

But how to get people to agree to such conditions? After all, no one wants to lose their money even in small quantities, much less pay the bank for storing your savings. It would be much easier to keep this money at home without any interest rates and headaches.

The answer is outrageously simple. We need to make sure that the population has no other choice, and they voluntarily go to banks to give their money. This can be achieved by artificially creating an increase in inflation by raising prices and devaluing paper currency. Another lever of such management is the depreciation of the currency compared to the main units - the euro and the dollar. Then, seeing that their personal savings are depreciating very quickly, people are forced to either invest them in something that has a permanent value, for example: real estate, precious metals, securities and the like. Or humbly go to the bank and give them your money for safekeeping, paying a negative interest rate for this.

The practice of introducing negative interest rates is already widely used in European countries. For example, in Denmark in 2012, the interest rate dropped below zero to the level of -0.75%, maintaining this trend, and by October 2015 its level had dropped to -0.9%. And according to the forecasts of economists and financiers, this trend will continue until 2017. Switzerland followed the same example, maintaining the level of its negative rates at -0.75%. Sweden settled at -0.35%. The purpose of these policies in Denmark and Switzerland was to reduce the incentive for foreign clients to keep money in their bank accounts. The high level of foreign capital inflows began to stimulate national currency, and its exchange rate increased greatly in relation to the euro. Sweden is pursuing one single goal - inflationary pressure on the population.

Based on the results of this policy, it can be called successful: Denmark was able to keep the national currency from falling further against the euro. Switzerland was also able to stop this process and today the franc is successfully trading within the usual and acceptable range of exchange rates. Sweden has not yet achieved great results, and the inflation situation remains quite unstable, but financiers predict a successful outcome of this monetary policy.

Let us recall that since October 27, 2014, this interest rate has been at a historically low level in Sweden: 0%. Now she is in the red.

At the same time, Riksbanken is buying government bonds worth 10 billion crowns, and is ready to buy more, the central bank said in a press release.

Riksbank analysts suggest that low inflation, which was at minus 0.3% in December at the rate of development for the year, may have already reached the “bottom”, so to speak, and will now begin to rise. In any case, the goal of 2% inflation per year is still far away.

Analyzing the situation in the surrounding world, the Riksbank concludes that world economy"bouncing back" after the financial crisis, but slowly. Since December last year, however, the risk of deterioration in economic development has increased. In particular, the fall in oil prices, which can have a positive impact on production growth, on the other hand, leads to low inflation on a global scale. The situation in Greece also does not add confidence in the development trends of the global economy.

With regard to Sweden specifically, the Riksbank believes that production growth is facilitated by: low prices for oil, and the weak exchange rate of the Swedish krona, and low interest rates bank rate. According to the bank, Sweden's GNP will grow faster and the labor market will strengthen.

What will this “minus rent” entail for Swedish residents: What will happen to bank loans? What will happen to the money that people put aside “in reserve” in their bank deposit accounts? What will happen to our mortgage loans?

A negative refinancing rate means that banks have to pay to deposit money into their Riksbank accounts. And they are obliged to do this if, as a result of all banking transactions of the current day, they have money left in their cash desk (overnight/overnight deposits).
But will this mean that banks will want to cover these costs at the expense of their clients? And they will start charging us for the fact that we want to put our saved money into a savings bank account?

In principle, interest rates on our accounts or mortgages should not be affected by these negative rents. Because the level of interest on deposit accounts and on loans is determined by each bank individually, and not by the Riksbank.
But for the banking system as a whole, the level of this short-term refinancing rate is of great importance.

This rate determines the interest that banks pay when they borrow money from each other. It could also lead to businesses being able to take out loans at lower interest rates. And this, in turn, can lead to an increase in investment, that is, precisely the stimulation of the Swedish economy that the Riksbank is striving for by lowering the interest rate. And an increase in production usually “triggers” the mechanism of inflation growth. This is what the Riksbank is trying to achieve.

Experience of other countries with negative interest rates shows that if this minus is small, then this does not affect small clients who habitually save money in bank accounts. In Denmark, FIH announced in March last year (following the central bank's rate cut) that for every 1,000 kroner a customer holds in the bank, he will have to pay 5 Danish kroner. According to the Wall Street Journal, clients have already begun to leave the Danish bank. What will happen if other banks follow FIH, asks a rhetorical question newspaper Svenska Dagbladet today in its economic supplement.

Anticipating today's move by the Central Bank, two directors of large Swedish private banks have already spoken out on this topic and assured their clients that they - that is, all of us - will not have to pay to keep their money in the bank.
The two directors are Annika Falkengren from Svensk Enshilda Banken/SEB and Michael Wolf from Swedbank.

Mikael Wolf from Swedbank assured (in an interview with the Ekot newsroom) Swedish Radio that banks will do everything to protect their small depositors. Because otherwise, they - these depositors - will simply take their money from the bank and hide it, as they say, “under the mattress.” However, neither he nor his colleague Annika Falkengren can give any guarantees. No one can guarantee that the “negative rent” for banks will not turn into an equally negative rent for small depositors.

An expert on private economic affairs (microeconomics), Annika Creutzer, believes, for example, that “negative rent” will affect not only how and where people will store their savings, but also the level of wages. Here's how she explains the impact of this interest rate cut:

This means that when banks borrow money from the Riksbank, the Riksbank charges a fee for it. 0.1 percent. This means that banks will want to give us, clients, even more loans and credits, and these loans will cost us less. But there will be no interest on savings at all; this is a new situation for us. It is possible that we will also have to pay to open a savings account in a bank, says Annika Kreuzer, expert and journalist.

She describes inflation as the “lubricant” of the economy and explains its necessity in terms of paying for goods and services. The Riksbank's goal is to keep inflation low and stable. But now, due to growing concerns and turbulence in the global economy since December last year, the Riksbank is cutting interest rates and buying government bonds worth 10 billion crowns. The situation, however, is not unique to Sweden, says Annika Kreuzer:

This is an international problem. Sweden is a small country with an open economy, large exports and imports. We are influenced by what happens in the world. What is happening now in Sweden has already happened in Denmark and Switzerland.
Falling oil prices, problems in the eurozone, “limping” production growth in the US and the economic crisis in Greece - all this affects the Swedish economy. And it could be years before the situation changes, she said.

How will today's interest rate cut affect ordinary people? She answers this question:

I don't think there will be any changes in mortgage loans. But saving in a bank loses all meaning, because there is no interest on it. But it’s better to keep money in the bank, even if it doesn’t grow there, than at home under the mattress. Just for security reasons,” says Annika, meaning that you shouldn’t put yourself at risk of robbery or home theft if you hide money at home.

Annika Creutzer suggests that banks may increase fees for savings and savings accounts. There is little hope that interest rates on deposits will increase. But what is important, she emphasizes, is to check: does the bank have government guarantees for deposits? So that this money does not “melt” in the account over time.

As for the impact of a negative interest rate on wages, it assumes the following scenario:

It is likely that employers will say: since we are not paid more for our goods (i.e. there is no inflation), then we cannot raise wages. It is possible that for some categories of workers this will mean a reduction in wages, said Annika Kreitzer in an interview with our colleague Isabelle Swahn