Gustave Courbet (Jean Desire Gustave Courbet) - life, creativity, paintings, facts. A story for everyone

To questions from viewers and visitors to the BBC website. There was a lot of interesting stuff there, but the range of topics and the direction of the discussion were still set by the users. Still, it’s more interesting to enjoy the vision of a professional futurologist, who is limited not by other people’s questions, but by his own imagination. Well, knowledge about current trends and promising technologies. Pearson gave us this opportunity: his company Futurizon presented a report on where our civilization will move in the first half this century. Long-term forecasts are not very accurate. But looking into the future through the eyes of a person for whom the future is a profession is always interesting. After all, he really sees much more than mere mortals. We are accustomed to the fact that a display that produces an image is an unchanging part of not only the present, but also the future; we have been taught this by numerous science fiction films and books. When we hear the words “artificial intelligence,” we imagine a robot or a traditional computer in which this very intelligence is hidden. Pearson (who, by the way, is not only a futurist, but also an inventor) claims that all these are long-outdated ideas. In 2050, everything will be completely different.

Much more interesting are mid-term forecasts - for ten, twenty, thirty years - so that people can assess how truthful they are during their lifetime. Such forecasts are made in Lately not so often. Futurologists prefer to make predictions in the long term that cannot be refuted or confirmed because the time period is too long. But Futurizon is not afraid to take responsibility and model the future of the world for the most inconvenient dates. Their latest report concerns the development of our civilization in the first half of the 21st century. It turned out very interesting material, largely innovative. Who knows, maybe this is what the world will look like in 2050.

Digital Jewels

By the middle of this century, all progressive humanity will get rid of displays, monitors and screens. Already today there are several developments of contact lenses that project images onto the retina of the eye. Today these are rather primitive prototypes, but their gradual evolution will lead to the fact that there will be no place left for external displays in a person’s life. Why will they be needed if the best display with a high-quality super-realistic image will be placed on the tip of your finger in the form contact lens? Any necessary image will be transmitted wirelessly directly to the retina. This will radically change the design of all electronics and household appliances. The entertainment industry is facing a real revolution. Today's awkward attempts to create a high-quality three-dimensional image will seem like primitive attractions. Gadgets without displays will become more like jewelry and decorations. “Digital jewelry” will be in fashion in 2050, and over time people will understand that real beauty must be hidden inside and will begin to hide gadgets in their bodies.

Graphene is the future

Graphene was obtained already in 2004, and in 2010 two scientists of Russian origin received a Nobel Prize. An unprecedentedly short period of time for the Nobel Committee, which often takes decades to assess the importance of a discovery. The committee appreciated the potential of an incredibly light and strong material that is the best known person conductor, can be used instead of silicon in microcircuits and used in almost any industry (naturally, when the technology for its production is cheap enough). It is thanks to graphene that electric networks can become a reality, which will deliver energy from solar panels in the Sahara almost without loss, batteries with incomparably larger capacity, many times faster computers and much more.

The world's population is stabilizing

The number of people on the planet will peak at 9.5 billion by the middle of this century. By this time, the demographic picture in currently developing countries will become more similar to what we see in developed countries. Therefore, for quite a long period, the human population will remain at approximately the same level. The concern of those who expect endless growth of the Earth's population with all the ensuing consequences (such as the extremely rapid depletion of all resources) is unjustified. Our planet, if properly used, can provide tens of billions of people with everything they need. But, most likely, the matter will be limited to only one dozen.

Public electric vehicles

The fleet of private cars will be replaced by electric cars for public use. They can be either municipal or corporate - with an appropriate fee for use. The natural development of transport will lead to this. It is impossible to deal with traffic jams in modern megacities using any non-repressive methods. But the solution to the problem will be a fleet of small ones controlled not by a person, but by a common electronic system Vehicle. Thanks to electronic brains, interaction with each other and external environment they will be many times more efficient than conventional cars. If these means are “common”, then the effectiveness in all senses will increase many times over. And, of course, bulky buses and trams will not be needed in this case.

Oil prices will fall

By 2030, the results of a gradual shift away from traditional energy based on the combustion of hydrocarbons will become noticeable, and by the middle of the century oil will be considered an inefficient and expensive source of energy. Despite the fact that it will only cost about $30 per barrel. For some time it will be used for individual needs and in remote areas, but in general the era of oil energy will end.

The futility of "wind turbines"

Wind power plants that are very fashionable these days are perfect example how green thinking takes over the mind. They are of little use (given the high cost, low efficiency and dependence on weather conditions), and they even harm the environment, since large fields of wind turbines affect air flows so much that they change the microclimate around and, in addition, they - worst enemies birds. Much more hope associated with solar power plants. In the near future, it will be possible to transmit energy over long distances with low losses. And then from batteries located in deserts (where the sun is sunny all day long) electricity will spread throughout the world. In addition, humanity will reconsider its attitude towards nuclear energy. It will become safer, more environmentally friendly and much more widespread.

Plastic islands

The problem of recycling huge amounts of plastic, which does not decompose for thousands of years, worries environmentalists. It is possible that this problem will turn into an advantage. When recycled, plastic is already pressed into blocks. So why not use them for useful purposes? Many coastal areas require shoreline strengthening or additional living space. By storing compressed plastic near the shore, you can kill several birds with one stone (although environmentalists will probably be horrified at first). There will be no problem of landfills - after all, living space will be organized right at the landfill (naturally, with the adoption of all the necessary environmental safety measures).

Artificial intelligence

If technology continues to develop at the same pace as now, by the middle of the century it is quite possible that artificial intelligence. But for some reason, in our view (formed by classical science fiction), artificial intelligence is something enclosed in a metal box - in a computer or a robot's head. In fact, artificial intelligence (more precisely, many such intelligences) will most likely exist in the digital cloud, on the vastness of the World Wide Web, to which everything is already connected, right down to coffee makers. And it is unlikely that we will be able to keep these genies in the box - they will be everywhere, with all the ensuing consequences that we cannot even imagine now. In this case, our society will never be the same: we will have to develop some laws according to which two types of intelligent beings will have to coexist - one biological species and one, so to speak, electronic. And in the even more distant future, perhaps there will be a transition from one form of existence to another.

The danger of a nuclear apocalypse

Technological development brings not only benefits, but also additional risks. Some (like the emergence and omnipresence of artificial intelligence) we are not able to appreciate now, and we have no idea how to cope with them. Others have been known to us for a long time, but will become more dangerous over time. We see that the spread of nuclear technology, despite the tough position of the world's largest powers, cannot be stopped. Even now, the risk of a nuclear disaster exists, although it is quite small - according to some estimates, the risk of someone using a nuclear weapon (accidentally or intentionally) in 2012 is 1 in 10,000. By mid-century, the number of those who will be able to do this will increase. will increase significantly. The risk of use will increase even more (times in 100), that is, to a probability of 1 in 100 in 2050. The largest nuclear arsenals will still be under relatively reliable control, but it is clear that even the explosion of one mini-bomb will lead to horrific consequences. This is the price for technical progress.

In the very late XIX century, one French company wondered what the world would look like in 100 years. She hired artists, gave them complete freedom of action, and they created the famous series of postcards showing old-fashioned people delivering mail on wooden gliders, plowing the oceans on horseback seahorses and plow the fields with puppet harvesters.

Now beginning of XXI century. What will the world be like in, say, 50 years? Everyone knows that problems await us first and foremost in the future. We are actively tormenting ourselves and are more concerned not about surviving, but about how to drag the entire planet into the abyss with us. But let’s imagine that scientists won and humanity followed the path of reason. All those technologies that are already available now were given the green light, and people promised not to put a spoke in their wheels and stopped signing petitions against GMOs.

The whole planet will become different. Firstly, landfills will completely disappear. Many bacteria can feed on plastic bags or even pure oil. This ability can easily be grafted onto, say, E. coli by isolating and transferring the necessary genes. After this, it will be possible to make soil out of all unnecessary plastic. For other waste, there is plasma gasification - a completely clean method of recycling waste, the use of which also generates energy.

Waste-free use of resources will significantly reduce the need for mining, and we will stop destroying nature for mines, filling the oceans with oil and poisoning their inhabitants with plastic.

At the same time, the need for the timber industry will disappear. Cellulose extracted from bacteria is purer and stronger than wood, objects of almost any shape can be grown from it, and for the production of both regular and electronic paper there is nothing better.

Coupled with zero emissions of toxic substances and greenhouse gases, all this will allow the planet to take on the form it had before the advent of man. The finishing touch will be cloning, which will recreate extinct species of plants and animals. Both those that became extinct due to the fault of man, like the seven-meter megalania lizard, the marsupial wolf or the moa ostrich, and those that disappeared on their own, like the woolly rhinoceros or mammoth. Work on cloning the latter has been going on for several years.

It is already possible to clone a cat or dog, and wealthy breeders use this to resurrect a purebred or simply a very beloved animal. But this is just the beginning. Why not make the new Sharik stronger than the old one? Or, shall we say, a little more beautiful?

And since genetic engineering, in principle, can create any combination of characteristics of existing animals, the matter will not be limited to the beautiful and strong Sharik.

Giant mice or tiny glow-in-the-dark cats can already be bred in the laboratory, as can adorable purple bunnies. In the future, the work of creating pets will be taken on by designers. Scientists started this in 2010, when they built the first artificial genome. It included quotes from Joyce, a huge list of names, and even a piece html-code.

Therefore, it is easy to believe that in 2065 it will be possible to create the genes of entire organisms simply by collecting animals in a computer editor. And then send the file to a factory in Indonesia, where within a month your new domestic elephant or crow-pterodactyl hybrid will be raised in a special vat.

If all the rest of nature just returned to its own ordinary life, then the person himself will make a decisive leap into the future. We will only eat GMOs. Conventional plants use solar energy extremely inefficiently: only a couple of percent become glucose - the rest is simply dissipated. If the genes of certain bacteria are transplanted into plants, the efficiency will increase significantly. Theoretically, this is possible now, and in the future, tiny plantations of modified rice and corn will supply the world's population with all the necessary nutrients.

Armed with genetics Agriculture will not only save humanity from hunger, but also create ideal food. There will be more and more “natural” and less and less “chemical” on store shelves. Who needs Red Bull or Snickers when you can buy a banana containing a heavy dose of caffeine and several thousand calories of energy? Such bananas can be created to suit any taste: orange, pine-flavored, apple-strawberry, licorice-lemon... After all, theoretically, nothing prevents you from giving any fruit any natural taste or combination of flavors.

Of course, we ourselves will change the most. Cosmetic surgery and hair dyes will become a thing of the past. In the future, they will be replaced by gene therapy. Previously, it was believed that the genes of an adult organism could not be changed, but not so long ago, scientists from Harvard found a way to do this.

Bacterial proteins are able to find special sections of DNA and cut them. Based on these proteins, scientists were able to create a molecular probe that can deliver the desired gene to Right place in an existing cell. With its help, it is quite possible to turn a blonde into a brunette or eliminate a local skin defect.

Of course, neither one nor the other will happen overnight: new hair, like new skin, will have to grow. Although in the future this may take much less time than now: the speed of cellular processes is affected great amount factors. If you choose them correctly, the conditions, the whole process will speed up many times.

Life will become an order of magnitude longer, and we will treat it much more carefully, because reminders of healthy way lives will now be at every step.

All the physiological parameters of the body that we need to know: glucose levels, hormones, heart rate, etc., etc., will be in the devices that will replace smartphones. They will tell you when and what to eat, when and how to exercise, when and how much to sleep - in full accordance with the data of medicine, and in half a century she will know much more than she knows now.

People will practice meditation as much as they do sports now. Research recent years convincingly demonstrate that meditation dramatically improves cognitive abilities such as memory and attention, has a positive effect on overall well-being, and even slightly cures cancer.

If meditation and smartphones prove powerless, stem cells will help. Everyone will have a couple put aside for a rainy day. If something happens, it will be possible to grow a new retina, cornea, tooth or piece of skin from them. Potentially, any organ can be grown from stem cells, but it is often technically easier to either use specially prepared animal organs or an artificial analogue.

Well, if it comes to death, then, as soon as the heart stops, the blood of the deceased will be replaced with a solution that protects the cells from turning into ice, and the whole body will be placed in liquid nitrogen. When science finds a way to bring a person back to life and make him immortal, the body will be taken out, repaired and turned on again. According to some scientists, this will happen in the next 100 years.

If this does not happen, then it will be possible to create a clone and transfer the consciousness of the deceased “into it.” It is already known that our personality is encoded in the connections between neurons, but so far we lack the power to create maps of these connections. They plan to solve this problem over the coming decades, and in the future it will become technically possible to copy consciousness.

Now the task of medicine is to make sick people healthy. All efforts are aimed at this: prosthetics are made to perfectly emulate a lost limb, and medications are designed to restore lost abilities, but nothing more. But, as already noted, in the future people will be healthier, and therefore medicine will finally turn its attention to healthy people.

It all starts innocently, say with resveratrol. This is a substance of plant origin, about which this moment it is known to be something of an elixir eternal life for rats and mice. If clinical trials on humans reveal at least a tenth of these positive effects, then in the future resveratrol will become a common dietary supplement, like vitamins.

This will open the way for everything else. The development of nootropic agents will finally receive proper funding, and drugs will appear in pharmacies that improve learning ability several times or give, say, absolute pitch. This is not as far from reality as it might seem: for example, valproic acid, which is used to treat epilepsy, actually improves musical hearing.

Hardly anyone will want to lag behind their rapidly growing smarter neighbors, and new nootropics will become as popular as caffeine. This will lead to the emergence of a whole market, more and more new drugs will be discovered, their strength will begin to grow, and people will become healthier and smarter.

Meanwhile, prosthetics will develop to such an extent that artificial legs, arms, eyes and ears will be better than those given at birth. Made from ultra-strong materials, prosthetics will make anyone a superman, allow them to see in the dark and hear ultrasound.

Of course, this will be preceded by long public debate. The UN Special Commission will issue a resolution “What to call a person”, which at first will seem too bold, and then will begin to interfere with progress and will be abolished.

By that time, so much knowledge about the human structure will have been accumulated that we will be able to create new people with given physical parameters and character traits. This will seriously change our view of family planning, and such measures could potentially lead to both a eugenic dictatorship and the world of the 22nd century Midday of the Strugatsky brothers.

In any case, in the distant future, children will be born in special chambers that constantly maintain ideal conditions for the fetus. Now the fetus will be free from the yoke of the mother’s body with its irregular and unhealthy diet, random trips to the bar and unplanned falls afterwards.

Most likely, this will be the end of humanity, to which we belong. Afterwards there will be the new kind, superior to us as much as we are superior to our hairy ancestors. This should not scare anyone: we will either die out or become something else - there is no third option. Despite all our illusions, evolution completely determines our history and will sooner or later take its toll.

Even if the future turns out to be completely different, even if this article in 100 years will be something like those French postcards of the early 20th century, one thing can be certain: the view Homo sapiens will cease to be. True, most likely because it will die out.

At the very end of the 19th century, a French company wondered what the world would look like in 100 years. She hired artists, gave them free reign, and they created a famous series of postcards showing old-fashioned people delivering mail on wooden gliders, plowing the oceans on seahorses, and plowing fields with puppet harvesters.

It's the beginning of the 21st century. What will the world be like in, say, 50 years? Everyone knows that problems await us first and foremost in the future. We are actively tormenting ourselves and are more concerned not about surviving, but about how to drag the entire planet into the abyss with us. But let’s imagine that scientists won and humanity followed the path of reason. All those technologies that are already available now were given the green light, and people promised not to put a spoke in their wheels and stopped signing petitions against GMOs.

Waste-free use of resources will significantly reduce the need for mining, and we will stop destroying nature for mines, filling the oceans with oil and poisoning their inhabitants with plastic.

Coupled with zero emissions of toxic substances and greenhouse gases, all this will allow the planet to take on the form it had before the advent of man. The final step will be cloning, which will recreate extinct species of plants and animals. Both those that became extinct due to the fault of man, like the seven-meter megalania lizard, the marsupial wolf or the moa ostrich, and those that disappeared on their own, like the woolly rhinoceros or mammoth. Work on cloning the latter has been going on for several years.

And since genetic engineering, in principle, can create any combination of characteristics of existing animals, the matter will not be limited to the beautiful and strong Sharik.

If the rest of nature simply returns to its normal life, then man himself will take a decisive leap into the future. We will only eat GMOs. Conventional plants use solar energy extremely inefficiently: only a couple of percent become glucose - the rest is simply dissipated. If the genes of certain bacteria are transplanted into plants, the efficiency will increase significantly. Theoretically, this is possible now, and in the future, tiny plantations of modified rice and corn will supply the world's population with all the necessary nutrients.

Armed with genetics, agriculture will not only relieve humanity of hunger, but also create ideal food. There will be more and more “natural” and less and less “chemical” on store shelves. Who needs Red Bull or Snickers when you can buy a banana containing a heavy dose of caffeine and several thousand calories of energy? Such bananas can be created to suit any taste: orange, pine-flavored, apple-strawberry, licorice-lemon... After all, theoretically, nothing prevents you from giving any fruit any natural taste or combination of flavors.

Bacterial proteins are able to find special sections of DNA and cut them. Based on these proteins, scientists were able to create a molecular probe that can deliver the desired gene to the right place in an existing cell. With its help, it is quite possible to turn a blonde into a brunette or eliminate a local skin defect.

Of course, neither one nor the other will happen overnight: new hair, like new skin, will have to grow. Although in the future this may take much less time than now: the speed of cellular processes is influenced by a huge number of factors. If you choose them correctly, the conditions, the whole process will speed up many times.

Life will become an order of magnitude longer, and we will treat it much more carefully, because reminders about a healthy lifestyle will now be at every step.

People will practice meditation as much as they do sports now. Research in recent years has convincingly demonstrated that meditation dramatically improves cognitive abilities such as memory and attention, has a positive effect on overall well-being, and even slightly cures cancer.

It all starts innocently, say with resveratrol. It is a substance of plant origin which is now known to be something of an elixir of eternal life for rats and mice. If clinical trials on humans reveal at least a tenth of these positive effects, then in the future resveratrol will become a common dietary supplement, like vitamins.

Most likely, this will be the end of humanity, to which we belong. Afterwards there will be a new species, superior to us as much as we are superior to our hairy ancestors. This should not scare anyone: we will either die out or become something else - there is no third option. Despite all our illusions, evolution completely determines our history and will sooner or later take its toll.