Leavened patriots. Leavened patriotism

Good afternoon, dear readers! Denis Kuderin is with you, an expert on the Papa Help portal. financial matters. The topic of the new article in our magazine is more relevant than ever - the relationship between the ruble and the dollar in light of the current political and economic situation in Russia.

People love to make predictions and listen to them as a way to prepare for changes in the future and choose the right direction in the present. It so happens that the economy of our country and the well-being of its population depend on the exchange rate of the dollar, the main reserve currency on the planet.

Predicting changes in the exchange rate of American money against the ruble is a thankless task, but a necessary one. A competent analysis of influencing factors will protect you from financial loss and protect your money.

Looking ahead, I will say that my personal opinion is that the dollar in 2018-2019 will “walk” in the corridor between 64 And 76 rubles. Global changes should not be expected.

Read the article to the end - a lot of interesting things await you!

What will happen to the dollar in the near future - 3 scenarios

What should the average citizen believe? How to save your savings from inflation and increase the value of your assets? Which forecasts can you trust?

Perhaps each of us has a friend who knows exactly what will happen to the country’s economy and finances in the near future. And then there are media analysts who say the opposite. The question of whose opinion to choose becomes key.

Right now, forecasters offer a choice of three options for the development of events regarding the dollar exchange rate. Let's look at them in detail.

The occurrence of these options has different probabilities, but none of them should be excluded.

Option 1. The dollar will rise to 90 rubles

Behind Last year The ruble exchange rate fell by 20%. A scenario in which the same thing happens in next year, quite likely. No one is going to lift the sanctions; on the contrary, they are being tightened even more.

Relations with Ukraine are not improving, and prices for oil, gas and other natural springs energy do not increase significantly. State budget of the Russian Federation 70% consists of revenues from minerals. As soon as the price of oil falls by even a fraction of a percent, this will inevitably affect the position of the ruble.

Another significant point is the outflow of capital from the Russian economy. According to statistics, the outflow is more than10 billion rubles per month . Foreign investors are leaving, and people who have substantial funds prefer to keep their savings in foreign banks. GDP is also not growing, which means it is becoming increasingly difficult to support the national currency with production.

Option 2. The dollar will fall below 50 rubles

This point of view is shared by a small group of experts. This is not a matter of patriotism: adherents of this scenario believe that the Russian financial system has sufficient reserves. And it will be enough not only to stabilize the exchange rate, but also to gradually increase the ruble against the dollar.

The increase in the Central Bank rate is an indirect factor in favor of the strengthening of the dollar. Experts who are cautious in their forecasts do not promise too sharp a rise in the ruble, but they also do not believe in its fall, especially in the first half of 2019.

According to their calculations, the cost $$ will fluctuate in the range 63-66 rubles for one “green president”.

Option 3. The dollar will “walk in the corridor” between 60 and 80 rubles

This is the most sober and reasonable scenario. Its adherents believe that nothing extraordinary will happen to quotes. The trend of a slow decline in the value of the ruble will continue, but no major shocks are expected in 2019.

Which forecast to believe - that is the question. According to the government, ordinary citizens have nothing to fear. In Russia, local producers have gradually awakened from hibernation and the tightening of sanctions will not affect domestic production in any way. economic situation. Maybe so, who knows...

But the population is afraid to “take the word” of such a forecast. However, he still sees no reason to urgently buy dollars, despite the current political situation.

Below I clearly show what factors will lead to each of the three options described above

Forecast comparison table:

In Russia, the exchange rate depends not only on the economy, but also on politics. The more difficult it is to do financial forecasts even for the next few months. Even the Hydrometeorological Center often makes mistakes in weather predictions, what to expect from forecasters exchange rate, even more changeable than the weather.

And yetIt is necessary to study and analyze currency forecasts, and for the following reasons:

• you will know whether it is worth investing in dollars in the near future or whether it is better to keep assets in national currency;
• save your capital in case of a sharp fall in the RUR exchange rate;
• make money on quotes;
• You will have time to exchange one money for another at a favorable rate before everyone else does.

The current ratio of the ruble/dollar pair is a kind of indicator indicating what changes and what kind of life awaits us in the near future. But it is extremely difficult to predict currency quotes when you do not know all the plans of the US and Russian governments.

A good example

While I was preparing this article, something happened key event in Russian financial policy: The Central Bank increased key rate for the first time since 2014. The reason for this decision is to reduce the risks of inflation and prevent a sharp collapse of the ruble. The strengthening of the ruble currency should stop the growth of the dollar in 2018-2019. But there are many other factors that could significantly affect the Central Bank's expectations.

Dollar forecast - what Russian and foreign economists are talking about

Now let's turn to specific specialists. Let me warn you right away that the opinions given below cannot be considered as a guide to action. They are given for informational purposes in order to show the most characteristic trends among analysts and economic forecasters.

Alpari analysts

Experts at the Alpari analytical center believe that raising the rate will prevent the ruble from sliding further down. In addition, there is a tendency for oil prices to rise. If the indicator remains above 80$ per barrel, there is a possibility of stabilization of the national currency.

Analysts believe that now the only factor negatively affecting the ruble is the geopolitical background. The “real” exchange rate (economically determined) is now approximately 63 rubles .

Minister of Economic Development M. Oreshkin

A representative of the Russian government is no less optimistic and predicts that at the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2019 the value of the dollar will be within 63-64 rubles. Maxim Oreshkin said that he sees no reason for the growth of quotes.

In his opinion, there are three factors that play “for” the ruble:

• the expected embargo on Iran;
• reduction in oil production in a number of OPEC countries;
• explosion of an Iraqi gas pipeline.

However, volatility (currency exchange rate fluctuations) will be significant. For the ordinary population, this means that you should not panic and transfer savings from one currency to another, especially doing this repeatedly. Speculation should only be undertaken by those who have experience working on the stock exchange.

Where to see the dollar chart online in real time

The best option is to look at charts on the official websites of Russian banks or large trading resources such as Finam or BCS.

However, there are a lot of portals on financial topics that publish real-time graphs of quotes - any brokers or exchanges provide such a service to everyone.

It is also very convenient to look at the dollar chart for different periods on Investing.com

Law banning the dollar in the Russian Federation – rumors or truth

The introduction of new sanctions against the Russian financial system could jeopardize the dollar savings of the population. However, the Central Bank, the government and commercial banks(in particular, VTB) intend to protect the deposits of ordinary citizens.

If the American government bans the use of US national currency by Russian banks, depositors will have their savings returned in other money. Which ones are still unknown. The head of VTB A. Kostin is confident that the Russian banking system will be able to cope with the consequences of such sanctions. Moreover, he doubts that such measures will be taken at all.

A complete independent departure from the use of the dollar in the Russian economic and financial system requires measures at the state level. This is exactly what the Russian professor thinks High school economics A. Abramov. In an interview " Rossiyskaya newspaper“He stated that “dedollarization” is not a bad idea in itself and should eliminate periodic devaluations of the ruble, which now occur every 7-8 years.

To avoid this, it is necessary to change the one-sided structure of the domestic economy, which constantly depends on the price of Natural resources. People will believe in the ruble if the government manages to “detach the country’s economy from oil prices.”

However, already now the Russian Federation’s settlements with its closest neighbors (countries former USSR) are mainly in rubles. Deputy Minister of Finance Alexey Moiseev believes that if this trend continues and progresses, then in 2 years it will be possible to seriously think about de-dollarizing Russia. But in the coming months, such an idea will not be feasible. This means that the law banning the dollar in Russia is so far nothing more than rumors.

Frequently asked questions about the dollar exchange rate and its future

And now, answers to the most pressing questions from our readers about the fate of the ruble and dollar in the foreseeable future.

If you don't find the answer to your question, ask it in the comments.

Question 1. When will the dollar fall? Vladimir, 32 years old, Moscow

This question is partly answered above: when the price of oil rises or the Russian economy ceases to depend on fluctuations in the cost of raw materials. This is unlikely to happen in the near future.

Question 2. Should we believe the news about the dollar and if so, what kind? Ekaterina, 42 years old, Voronezh

Under no circumstances should you believe all news, rumors, forecasts and speculation unconditionally. Even government assurances should not be trusted 100%. However, people of the older generation know this anyway.

Question 3. What dollar dynamics are most likely awaiting us in 2018-2019? Oleg, 29 years old, Stavropol

As I already said, volatility (rate fluctuations) will definitely be present in the next 6 months. But no one knows in which direction the graph will move – decline or growth.

Maxim Oreshkin, already mentioned by us, advises Russians to get rid of dollars and buy rubles. His forecast is decline in the value of the US currency to 63 rubles. Another question: even if this happens, where is the guarantee that the next jump will not return quotes to their previous level?

Question 4: Will the dollar rise or fall next year? Victor, 35 years old, Kazan

Professional experts working in largest companies Russia and the world have in their arsenal huge amounts of information and the most modern software for calculating the probabilities of events based on statistics, stock market fluctuations and other influencing factors. But even they regularly make mistakes in their forecasts.

During calm economic periods, their forecasts are more reliable, but few people need them. But with the onset of unstable times, economic analyzes become less and less reliable. This happens because no one can take into account the full diversity of life in their forecasts.

In other words, there is no exact answer to this question. No one really knows what will happen to the national currency in the coming months.

Question 5. Is it worth buying dollars now in order to make money on its growth in the future? Igor, 37 years old, Tambov

This is the key question. People are not as interested in political intrigue as they are in their own savings. If you constantly keep savings in rubles, inflation will destroy the profit on the deposit. Currency deposits more promising in terms of preserving and increasing funds. But not always.

Therefore, experts advise balancing risks and distributing assets across three major currencies at once. If you keep money in rubles, dollars and euros in a ratio of 40/30/30, the likelihood of losing funds will be minimal.

Question 6. I don’t understand what’s happening with the dollar, why is its rate jumping so much? Lyudmila, 27 years old, Simferopol

It is not the dollar that is jumping, but the ruble against the dollar. The value of the dollar itself remains approximately the same. This does not mean that American money is not subject to inflation and other processes characteristic of any currency. It’s just that this is not happening as sharply as in the case of our domestic currency.

Question 8. Like many people, I recently wondered when the dollar will collapse, because the US national debt has crossed all acceptable limits for a long time, and if this happens, what will happen to the world economy? Nikolay, 54 years old, Vladivostok

Yes, the US national debt has already exceeded the country's GDP, and the American government solves all financial problems in the simplest way - by turning on the printing press. The system is not supported by anything material and yet it works.

Experts say that the dollar will continue to serve as the world's reserve currency as long as countries use this money for international payments and store it in domestic banks. Another factor in the stability of the dollar is the political strength of the United States. As long as the country is taken into account, its money, even if not backed by anything, will be in demand.

The whole drama of the situation is that if an economic crisis occurs in the United States, it will affect the entire world economy, including Russian ones.

Be sure to watch Vladimir Zhirinovsky’s recent speech where he proposes to abandon the dollar, which is generally logical from his words:

conclusions

Everyone is interested in the dollar exchange rate - from housewives to stock traders. Millions of people around the world keep their assets in dollars. This is the number one reserve currency in the Russian Federation and a reliable financial instrument.

Everyone loves dollars, and not because they adore America. It’s just that the dollar tends to steadily rise in price relative to many others national currencies. This does not mean that US money is not subject to periodic fluctuations in value. This happens to them too, but not as clearly and often as with the ruble.

Need to remember:

1. The ruble exchange rate depends on both the economy and geopolitics.
2. No expert can give a 100% correct forecast, since he is unable to take into account the entire variety of factors.
3. It is safest to keep your savings in several currencies.
4. And it’s even safer to invest assets in more profitable instruments (stocks and bonds).

So, the answer to the question of what will happen to the dollar in the near future does not have a clear answer. And it’s worth making money on speculation only if you have experience in stock trading. But it is better for the common man to store money in various financial instruments besides currency: real estate, precious metals, Mutual Funds (mutual investment funds).

PS Friends, what do you think will happen to the dollar in the near future? Leave your comments under the article and I will definitely answer them!

I wish you material well-being!

Sincerely, financial expert of the business magazine “PAPA HELPED”,

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The same dictionary indicates that the expression came into use in the 20s of the 19th century.

Expression of the poet Pyotr Andreevich Vyazemsky (1792-1878) from the essay “Letters from Paris” (1827). First published in the Moscow Telegraph magazine under the pseudonym “G. R.-K. "*: "Many people recognize patriotism as unconditional praise for everything that is theirs. Turgot called this lackey patriotism, du patriotisme d'antichambre (literally "hallway patriotism"). We could call it leavened patriotism. I believe that love for the fatherland should be blind in donations to it, but not in vain complacency; in this love can also include hatred. What patriot, no matter what nation he belongs to, would not want to tear out a few pages from the history of our country and would not seethe with indignation at the prejudices and vices characteristic of his fellow citizens? True love is jealous and demanding."

In his collected works, Vyazemsky, in a note to “Letters from Paris,” marks this passage with a footnote, where he specifically notes his authorship of the expression “ leavened patriot izm”: “Here for the first time this comic definition appeared, which has since been and is used so often” (Poly. collected works. T. 1. St. Petersburg, 1878).

In their " Notebooks“Vyazemsky describes the varieties of pseudo-patriotism: “The expression leavened patriotism was jokingly introduced and retained. There is no big problem in this patriotism. But there is also fusel patriotism; this one is destructive: God forbid from it! It darkens the mind, hardens the heart, leads to binge drinking, and binge drinking leads to delirium tremens. There is political and literary fuss, there is also political and literary delirium tremens.”

*Pseudonym "G. R.-K. “Vyazemsky invented it in order to “confuse Moscow readers.” By this pseudonym the poet meant his friend Grigory Rimsky-Korsakov, “known to everyone in Moscow.”

Examples

(1892 - 1968)

“The Tale of Life” (The Beginning of an Unknown Century) (1956) - “Each people has its own characteristics, its own worthy traits. But people, choking with saliva from affection for their people and lacking a sense of proportion, always bring these national traits to ridiculous proportions, to treacle, to disgust. Therefore no worst enemies from your people than leavened patriot s."

(1878 - 1939)

(1930) (): "Let me be accused of leaven, geographical patriotism, but in order to remain truthful to the end, I must not only say, but exclaim: “Only on the Volga, only in Khlynovsk there are such springs.”

An expression that ironically defines a stubborn, obtuse attention to detail national life(Russian kvass, clothes, etc.); this “jingoism”, praising everything that is one’s own and blaming what is foreign, is the opposite true patriotism. This expression was first used by P. A. Vyazemsky. In “Letters from Paris,” published in 1827 in the Moscow Telegraph magazine (Part XV, p. 282), he says: “Many people recognize patriotism as unconditional praise for everything that is theirs. Turgot called this lackey patriotism, du patriotisme d'antichambre. In our country we could call it leavened patriotism. I believe that love for the fatherland should be blind in donations to it, but not in vain complacency; This love can also include hatred. What patriot, no matter what nation he belongs to, would not want to rip out a few pages from Russian history and would not seethe with indignation at the prejudices and vices characteristic of his fellow citizens? True love is jealous and demanding." Having included “Letters from Paris” in his collected works, Vyazemsky made the following note to the expression “leavened patriotism”: “Here for the first time this comic definition appeared, which has since been and is so often used” (Poln. sobr. soch., vol. I , St. Petersburg 1878, p. 244), Vyazemsky’s letters were published in the Moscow Telegraph under the signature of G. R.-K., in order, as he writes, “to confuse Moscow readers”; this signature was supposed to mean Vyazemsky’s friend, Grigory Rimsky-Korsakov, “very well known to everyone in Moscow” (ibid., p. 258). V. G. Belinsky in the article “Lermontov’s Poems,” using the expression “leavened patriotism,” calls it Vyazemsky’s “happy expression” (Complete collected works, published by the Academy of Sciences of the USSR, vol. IV, M. 1954, p. 489). Nevertheless, the author of this expression is often called the publisher of the Moscow Telegraph, N. A. Polevoy (see, for example, P. I. Lebedev-Polyansky, V. G. Belinsky “Literary Critical Activity, M. 1945, p. 27 ), The expressions “leavened patriotism”, “leavened patriot” have received wide circulation since the 20s of the last century and began to be used to characterize the reactionary views of individuals who true love to your home country and the desire for its development was replaced by stupid admiration for the backward forms of its life and way of life.

After... all sorts of cold newspaper exclamations, written in the style of lipstick advertisements, and all sorts of angry, unkempt and passionate antics produced by all sorts of leavened and unleavened patriots, we in Rus' stopped believing in the sincerity of all printed outpourings... (N.V. Gogol, About the lyricism of our poets).

However, he did not suffer from leavened patriotism for long (I. S. Turgenev, Memoirs of Belinsky).

Alexey Timofeevich did not feel very offended. He often said: “That’s what newspapers are for, to mix up fact and fable.” His name was not mentioned in the article, but the hints were clear.

They laughed at the love of Slavs and the “leavened” patriotism of both his nephew and himself (P. D. Boborykin, Kitay-Gorod, 2, 6).