The hottest spots on the planet. Apparat – Magazine about the new society

The most terrible periods in the history of mankind are world wars, which entailed huge losses of human lives. The last such war died down in 1945, but local armed conflicts still break out in the world, due to which certain regions turn into hot spots - places of confrontation with the use of firearms.

Iraq

There are as many as 11 hot spots in Asia. Separatism, terrorism, civil war, interethnic and interreligious conflicts have led to the fact that a number of countries have armed conflicts on their territory. Among them:

  • Iran;
  • Israel;
  • Palestine;
  • Lebanon;
  • Afghanistan;
  • Pakistan;
  • Sri Lanka;
  • Myanmar;
  • Philippines;
  • Indonesia.

But the fiercest fighting is taking place in Iraq, a hotspot where terrorism is rampant. Government troops are trying to confront the notorious organization IS (formerly ISIS), which intends to create an Islamic theocratic state in the country. The terrorists have already included a number of cities in the caliphate, of which the government managed to recapture only two. The situation is complicated by the fact that at the same time, disparate Sunni groups, as well as Kurds, are operating, seizing large regions with the goal of separating from the country and creating autonomy for Iraqi Kurdistan.

IS controls not only Iraq, but also parts of Syria, which has practically liberated itself from the influence of the group, as well as small captured territories of Afghanistan, Egypt, Yemen, Libya, Nigeria, Somalia and Congo. They claim responsibility for a range of terrorist attacks, from an artillery bombing in 2007 to an attack on police and a supermarket hostage-taking in Trebe in March 2018.

In addition, militants do not hesitate to kill civilians, capture military personnel, destroy culture, human trafficking and the use of chemical weapons.

Gaza Strip

The list of hot spots in the world continues with the Middle East, where Israel, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories are located. The civilian population of the Gaza Strip is under the yoke of the terrorist organizations Hamas and Fatah, whose infrastructure the defense army is trying to destroy. This hot spot in the world has seen rocket attacks and child abductions.

The reason for this is the Arab-Israeli conflict, which involves Arab groups and the Zionist movement. It all started with the founding of Israel, which captured several regions in the Six-Day War, among them the Gaza Strip. Subsequently, the League of Arab States offered to resolve the conflict peacefully if the occupied territories were liberated, but an official response was never received.

Meanwhile, the Palestinian Islamist movement began to rule in the Gaza Strip. Military operations were regularly carried out against him, the most notorious of the latter being called “Unbreakable Rock”. It was provoked by a terrorist attack involving the kidnapping and murder of three Jewish teenagers, two of whom were 16 and one 19 years old. The terrorists responsible for this resisted arrest and were killed.

Currently, Israel is conducting operations to counter terrorists, but militants often violate the terms of the truce and do not allow humanitarian aid to be provided. The civilian population is heavily involved in the conflict.

Syria

Another one of the hottest spots in the world is Syria. Its residents, along with Iran, suffer from the seizure of territories by IS militants, and at the same time, the Arab-Israeli conflict is active in it.

Syria, along with Egypt and Jordan, was at enmity with Israel immediately after its creation. “Guerrilla wars” took place, attacks were carried out on holy days, and all proposals for peace negotiations were rejected. Now there is a “ceasefire line” between the warring states, instead of an official border, and the confrontation continues to be acute.

In addition to the Arab-Israeli conflict, the situation inside the country is also turbulent. It all started with the suppression of anti-government uprisings, which developed into a civil war. About 100 thousand people participate in it as part of various groups. The armed forces are confronted by a huge number of opposition groups, of which radical Islamists are the most powerful.

In this hot spot of the world, the army currently controls most of the territory, but the northern regions are part of the caliphate founded by the terrorist organization ISIS. The Syrian President authorizes attacks on the city of Aleppo, controlled by militants. But the struggle is not only between the state and the opposition; many groups are at enmity with each other. Thus, the “Islamist Front” and Syrian Kurdistan are actively opposing the Islamic State.

East of Ukraine

The CIS countries did not escape the sad fate. The aspirations of individual territories for autonomy, interethnic conflicts, terrorist attacks, and the threat of civil war endanger the lives of civilians. Hot spots in Russia include:

  • Dagestan;
  • Ingushetia;
  • Kabardino-Balkaria;
  • North Ossetia.

The most fierce battles took place in Chechnya. The war in this republic claimed many human lives, destroyed the infrastructure of the subject, and led to brutal acts of terrorism. Fortunately, the conflict has now been resolved. Neither in the Chechen Republic nor in other regions are there armed uprisings, so we can say that at the moment there are no hot spots in Russia. But the situation still cannot be considered stable.

Conflicts also arise in the following countries:

  • Moldova;
  • Azerbaijan;
  • Kyrgyzstan;
  • Tajikistan.

The hottest spot is considered to be the East of Ukraine. Dissatisfaction with the rule of President Yanukovych in 2010-2013 led to numerous protests. The change of power in Kiev, the annexation of Crimea to Russia, which Ukraine perceived as occupation, and the formation of new people's republics - Donetsk and Lugansk - led to open confrontation with the use of firearms. Military operations are constantly carried out against militias. The Armed Forces, the National Guard, the Security Service, the Russian Orthodox Army, Russian volunteers and other parties are taking part in the conflict. Air defense systems and anti-aircraft missile systems are being used, ceasefire agreements are being violated, and thousands of people are dying.


From time to time, the armed forces manage to recapture individual cities from the separatists, for example, the latest success was Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkovka, Konstantinovka.

central Asia

The geography of the world's hot spots affects a number of Central Asian countries, some of which belong to the CIS. The sites of armed conflicts are Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Pakistan (South Asia). But the leader among these countries is Afghanistan, in which the Taliban regularly carries out explosions as terrorist acts. In addition, the Taliban shoot children. The reason could be anything: from a child learning English to accusing a seven-year-old boy of espionage. It is common to kill children as revenge against their uncooperative parents.

Meanwhile, Uzbekistan is bitterly contesting the territorial borders with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan formed after the collapse of the USSR. When forming the union, the ethnic and socio-economic nuances of the territories were indeed not taken into account, but then the borders were internal, and troubles were avoided. Now disagreement with the division of territory threatens armed conflict.

Nigeria

The record holder for the number of hot spots on the planet is Africa. In addition to terrorism and separatism, it is an area of ​​the Ethiopian-Eritrean conflict, and is also plagued by piracy, civil wars and liberation wars. This affected a number of countries, including:

  • Algeria;
  • Sudan;
  • Eritrea;
  • Somalia;
  • Morocco;
  • Liberia;
  • Congo;
  • Rwanda;
  • Burundi;
  • Mozambique;
  • Angola.

In Nigeria, meanwhile, ethnic conflict breaks out every now and then. The Boko Haram sect is fighting to transform the state into a Muslim one, while a significant part of the population professes Christianity. The organization managed to arm itself, and it does not disdain any means to achieve its goal: terrorist actions are carried out, mass executions are carried out, people are kidnapped. Not only adherents of other religions suffer from them, but also secular-minded Muslims.


Entire regions are under the control of Boko Haram, government troops equipped with outdated weapons are unable to suppress the rebels, and negotiations are not yielding a positive result. As a result, a state of emergency has been declared in some states, and the president is asking for financial assistance from other countries. Among the sect's latest high-profile crimes is the kidnapping of 2014, when 276 schoolgirls were taken hostage to be sold into slavery, most of them remain in captivity.

South Sudan

Sudan in Africa is also considered a hot spot in the world. The political crisis that arose in the country led to attempts at a military coup by the vice president belonging to the Nuer tribal union. The president announced that the uprising had been successfully suppressed, but later began to reshuffle the leadership and removed almost all representatives of the Nuer union from it. There was another uprising, followed by mass arrests by Dinka supporters of the incumbent president. The riots escalated into armed clashes. The initially stronger Dinka alliance lost control of the oil-producing areas to the rebels. The state's economy inevitably suffered from this.

As a result of the conflicts, more than 10 thousand people died, 700 thousand became refugees. The UN condemned the actions of not only the rebels, but also the government, since both sides resorted to torture, violence and brutal killings of representatives of the other tribe. To protect civilians, UN peacekeeping forces sent assistance, but the situation cannot yet be resolved. The troops of Uganda, located nearby, are on the side of the official government. The rebel leader has expressed a willingness to negotiate, but the situation is complicated by the fact that many of the rebels have escaped the control of the former vice president.

Sahel region

The people of the tropical savanna of the Sahel, unfortunately, are accustomed to starvation. Back in the 20th century, there were large-scale droughts, due to which the population was severely short of food. But the terrible situation has repeated itself now; statistics say that 11 million people are starving in the region. Now this is due to the humanitarian crisis that has erupted in Mali. The northeastern part of the republic was captured by Islamists, who founded the self-proclaimed state of Azawad on its territory.


The president was unable to correct the situation, and a military coup was carried out in Mali. Tuaregs and radical Islamists who have joined them operate on the territory of the state. The French army is helping government troops.

Mexico

In North America, the hot spot is Mexico, where herbal and synthetic drugs are not only produced, but sold and shipped to other countries in huge quantities. There are huge drug cartels with a forty-year history that began with the resale of illegal substances and are now producing them themselves. They mainly deal in opium, heroin, cannabis, cocaine and methamphetamine. At the same time, corrupt government agencies assist them in this.


At first, conflicts arose only between warring drug cartels, but the new president of Mexico decided to correct the situation and stop illegal production. Police and army forces have been involved in the standoff, but the government has so far failed to make significant improvements.

Cartels that have developed under the guise of government agencies are well-connected; they have their people among the top leadership, buy up the armed forces, and hire public relations agents in order to influence popular opinion. As a result, self-defense units were formed in various states of the state that did not trust the police.

Their sphere of influence extends not only to the drug business, but also to prostitution, counterfeit products, trade in weapons and even software.

Corsica

Hot spots in Europe are represented by several countries, including Serbia, Macedonia and Spain. Corsican separatism also causes a lot of trouble. The organization, operating in the south of France, fights for independence and recognition of the political independence of the island. According to the rebels' demands, the inhabitants should be called the people of Corsica, and not the French.

Corsica is considered a special economic zone, but has never achieved complete independence. But the rebels do not give up trying to achieve what they want and carry out active terrorist activities. Most often their victims are foreigners. The National Liberation Front is financed through smuggling, robbery, and drug trafficking. France is trying to resolve the conflict through compromises and concessions.


These 10 hot spots in the world are still a threat today. But besides them, there are many other regions where the lives of the population are in danger. For example, the constantly flaring conflict in Turkey between the capital and a military political party, dating back to 2015, and periodic terrorist attacks in Istanbul are dangerous for the indigenous population and tourists. This also includes the humanitarian disaster in Yemen, the political crisis in the Republic of Congo, and the armed conflict in Myanmar.

Short periods of calm at these points are followed by even more violent clashes. The worst thing is that in this confrontation, civilians are dying, people are being deprived of their homes and a quiet life, and are turning into refugees. However, hopes for resolving conflicts remain, because the military forces of many countries are dedicated to this.

Today, global wars are a thing of the past: even the latest studies say that in the third millennium, significantly fewer people die during armed conflicts. But despite this, the unstable situation remains in many regions, and hot spots continue to appear on the map every now and then. Here are the ten most significant armed conflicts and military crises that threaten the world right now.

Zones of military tension are indicated in red on the maps

Participants
Government troops, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), scattered Sunni groups, autonomy of Iraqi Kurdistan.

The essence of the conflict
The terrorist organization ISIS wants to build a caliphate - an Islamic theocratic state - on part of the territories of Iraq and Syria, and so far the authorities have not been able to successfully resist the militants. The Iraqi Kurds took advantage of the ISIS offensive - they unhinderedly captured several large oil-producing regions and are planning to secede from Iraq.

Current situation
The ISIS caliphate already extends from the Syrian city of Aleppo to the areas bordering Baghdad. So far, government troops have managed to recapture only a few large cities - Tikrit and Uja. The autonomy of Iraqi Kurdistan has freely taken control of several large oil-producing areas and is planning to hold a referendum on independence in the near future.

Participants
Israel Defense Forces, Hamas, Fatah, Gaza Strip civilians.

The essence of the conflict
Israel launched Operation Unbreakable Wall to destroy the infrastructure of the Hamas terrorist movement and other terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip region. The immediate cause was the increased frequency of rocket attacks on Israeli territories and the kidnapping of three Jewish teenagers.

Current situation
On July 17, the ground phase of the operation began after Hamas militants violated a five-hour truce to organize humanitarian corridors. According to the UN, by the time the temporary truce was concluded, there were already more than 200 civilian deaths. The Palestinian President's Fatah party has already stated that their people will “repel Israeli aggression in the Gaza Strip.”

Participants
Syrian Armed Forces, National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, Syrian Kurdistan, Al-Qaeda, Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, Islamic Front, Ahrar al-Sham, Al-Nusra Front and others.

The essence of the conflict
The war in Syria began after a brutal crackdown on anti-government demonstrations that began in the region in the wake of the Arab Spring. The armed confrontation between the army of Bashar al-Assad and the moderate opposition escalated into a civil war that affected the entire country - now in Syria about 1,500 different rebel groups with a total number of 75 to 115 thousand people have joined the conflict. The most powerful armed groups are radical Islamists.

Current situation
Today, most of the country is controlled by the Syrian army, but the northern regions of Syria are captured by ISIS. Assad's forces are attacking moderate opposition forces in Aleppo, near Damascus the confrontation between ISIS terrorists and militants of the Islamic Front has intensified, and in the north of the country the Kurds are also resisting ISIS.


Participants
Armed Forces of Ukraine, National Guard of Ukraine, Security Service of Ukraine, militias of the Donetsk People's Republic, militias of the Lugansk People's Republic, "Russian Orthodox Army", Russian volunteers and others.

The essence of the conflict
After the annexation of Crimea to Russia and the change of power in Kyiv in the South-East of Ukraine in April of this year, the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics were proclaimed by pro-Russian armed forces. The Ukrainian government and newly elected President Poroshenko launched a military operation against the separatists.

Current situation
On July 17, a Malaysian airliner crashed over separatist-controlled territories. Kyiv blamed the deaths of 298 people on fighters of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic - the Ukrainian authorities are convinced that the separatists have air defense systems that were transferred to them by the Russian side. The DPR denies any involvement in the plane crash. OSCE representatives are currently working at the crash site. However, the separatists have already shot down planes before, although not at such a height and with the help of man-portable anti-aircraft missile systems. To date, the armed forces of Ukraine have managed to recapture part of the territories from the separatists, in particular the city of Slavyansk.

Participants
Government troops, Boko Haram.

The essence of the conflict
Since 2002, the radical Islamist sect Boko Haram has been operating in Nigeria, which advocates the introduction of Sharia law throughout the country, while only part of the state is inhabited by Muslims. Over the past five years, Boko Haram followers have armed themselves and now regularly carry out terrorist attacks, kidnappings and mass executions. The victims of terrorists are Christians and secular Muslims. The country's leadership has failed negotiations with Boko Haram and is not yet able to suppress the group, which already controls entire regions.

Current situation
Some Nigerian states have been under a state of emergency for a year now. On July 17, the President of Nigeria asked for financial assistance from the international community: the country's army had too outdated and few weapons to fight terrorists. Since April this year, Boko Haram has been holding hostage over 250 schoolgirls who were kidnapped for ransom or sale into slavery.

Participants
Dinka Tribal Union, Nuer Tribal Union, UN Peacekeeping Forces, Uganda.

The essence of the conflict
At the height of the political crisis in December 2013, the president of South Sudan announced that his former ally and vice president had attempted to stage a military coup in the country. Mass arrests and riots began, which subsequently escalated into violent armed clashes between two tribal unions: the country’s president belongs to the Nuer, which dominates politics and the population, and the disgraced vice-president and his supporters belong to the Dinka, the second largest ethnic group in the state.

Current situation
The rebels control the main oil-producing areas - the basis of South Sudan's economy. The UN sent a peacekeeping contingent to the epicenter of the conflict to protect civilians: more than 10 thousand people were killed in the country, and 700 thousand became forced refugees. In May, the warring parties began negotiations for a truce, but the former vice president and rebel leader admitted that he could not completely control the rebels. Resolving the conflict is complicated by the presence of troops from neighboring Uganda in the country, which are on the side of the government forces of South Sudan.


Participants
More than 10 drug cartels, government troops, police, self-defense units.

The essence of the conflict
For several decades, there was hostility between drug cartels in Mexico, but the corrupt government tried not to interfere in the fight between the groups for drug traffic. That changed when newly elected President Felipe Calderon sent regular army troops into one of the states in 2006 to restore order there.
The confrontation escalated into a war between the combined police and army forces against dozens of drug cartels across the country.

Current situation
Over the years of conflict, drug cartels in Mexico have turned into real corporations - now they control and divide among themselves the market for sex services, counterfeit goods, weapons, and software. In government and media, large cartels have their own lobbyists and agents who work on public opinion. The cartel war over drug traffic has become secondary; now they are fighting among themselves for control of communications: major highways, ports, border cities. Government forces are losing in this war primarily due to widespread corruption and the massive defection of the armed forces to the side of the drug cartels. In some especially crime-prone regions, the population has formed a people's militia because they do not trust the local police.


Participants
Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Pakistan.

The essence of the conflict
The tense situation in the region is maintained by Afghanistan, which has been unstable for decades, on the one hand, and Uzbekistan, which is entering into territorial disputes, on the other. The main drug traffic in the Eastern Hemisphere also passes through these countries - a powerful source of regular armed clashes between criminal groups.

Current situation
After the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan and the presidential elections, another crisis erupted in the country. The Taliban launched a large-scale attack on Kabul, while participants in the election race refused to recognize the results of the presidential election.
In January of this year, an armed conflict began between border services on the border of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan - each side is confident of violating the other’s border. There is still no agreement between the countries on clear demarcation of borders. Uzbekistan also presented its territorial claims to neighboring Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan - the country's authorities are not satisfied with the borders that were formed as a result of the collapse of the USSR. A few weeks ago, the next stage of negotiations began to resolve the conflict, which since 2012 could at any time turn into an armed one.


Participants
China, Vietnam, Japan, Philippines.

The essence of the conflict
After the annexation of Crimea to Russia, the situation in the region deteriorated again - China again started talking about territorial claims to Vietnam. The disputes concern the small but strategically important Paracel Islands and the Spratly Archipelago. The conflict is exacerbated by the militarization of Japan. Tokyo decided to revise its peace constitution, begin militarization and increase its military presence in the Senkaku Archipelago, which is also claimed by the PRC.

Current situation
China has completed development of oil fields near disputed islands that have sparked protests from Vietnam. The Philippines sent its military to support Vietnam and carried out an action that angered Beijing - the troops of the two countries played a demonstrative football game in the Spratly archipelago. There are still Chinese warships a short distance from the Paracel Islands. Among other things, Hanoi claims that the Chinese have already deliberately sunk one Vietnamese fishing boat and damaged 24 others. However, at the same time, China and the Philippines oppose Japan's policy of militarization.


Participants
France, Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, Sudan, Eritrea and other neighboring countries.

The essence of the conflict
In 2012, the Sahel region experienced its largest humanitarian crisis: the negative impact of the crisis in Mali coincided with severe food shortages. During the civil war, most Tuaregs from Libya emigrated to northern Mali. There they proclaimed the independent state of Azawad. In 2013, the Malian military accused the president of failing to deal with the separatists and staged a military coup. At the same time, France sent its troops into Mali to fight the Tuaregs and the radical Islamists who joined them from neighboring countries. The Sahel is home to the largest markets for arms, slaves, drugs on the African continent and the main hideouts for dozens of terrorist organizations.

Current situation
The UN estimates that more than 11 million people in the Sahel region are currently hungry. And in the near future this number may increase to 18 million. In Mali, clashes between government troops and the French army against Tuareg guerrilla groups and radical Islamists continue, despite the fall of the self-proclaimed state of Azawad. And this only increases the unstable situation and humanitarian crisis in the region - in 2014, the presence of terrorist groups increased in almost all Sahel countries.

War between people has been going on since very ancient times. I suggest learning about some hot spots over the past few years.

Eastern Congo. Since the militias declared war on the country's ethnic minority, the situation in the country has become very unstable. Since 1994, more than a million Congolese have fled the country as a huge insurgency has formed in the country. Several million Congolese who did not leave were killed. Later in 2003, the National Congress of People's Defense was created, headed by Laurent Nkunda. In 2009, it was captured by Rwandan troops, but the unrest in the country never stopped. The photo was taken in a rebel camp in Goma. People carry their dead relative in a coffin.



Kashmir. When Great Britain renounced its rights to India in 1947, conflicts began in Kashmir that continue to this day. As a result of the collapse, two countries emerged: Pakistan and India. The photo was taken in Srinagar when tear gas was used to disperse the crowd.


China. In the photo, Chinese soldiers look outside the city of Urumqi, Xinjiang province. Uyghurs make up 45% of the population of the Northwestern Autonomous Region. Since the 90s, the Uighurs have been demanding independence, despite the fact that the region is considered autonomous. During the next Uighur uprising in Urumqi, 150 people died.


Iran. In 2009, an uprising arose in this country, which was called the Green Revolution. It is considered the most significant since 1979. It appeared after the elections, when Ahmadinejad won the presidency. Immediately after the elections, millions of local residents took to the streets in support of Mousavi. Iran has always used weapons to disperse protesters.


Chad. The civil war has been going on here since 2005. Chad has become an excellent refuge for refugees from Darfur and neighboring Central African republics. The photo shows Chadian soldiers.


Eastern Chad. About 500,000 people had to flee to the deserts of Chad and remain there as refugees, creating their own camps. Due to the fact that the two countries are in conflict, a huge number of people are dying. The photo shows women from a refugee camp carrying branches for a fire.


North Korea and South Korea remain very tense. In the south of the country, the United States left about 20,000 of its soldiers, because a peace treaty has not yet been signed between these two countries, but this issue is constantly open. The North Korean leader continues to develop Pyongyang's nuclear program, even after the United States tried several times to stop it during negotiations. North Korea first tested its nuclear weapons in 2006, after which they were tested again in 2009. In the photo, soldiers from different sides stand opposite each other on the border that divides the territory into two Koreas.


Pakistan's North West Province. Since 2001, along the border with Afghanistan, Pakistan's North West Frontier Province has seen some of the heaviest fighting between Islamists and Pakistani forces. Many people believe that al-Qaeda leaders are hiding here, which is why American planes constantly fly over here. This place is recognized as the most tense, hot spot in the world. The photo shows a burnt oil tanker, with a Pakistani soldier in the foreground.


Pakistan. This country remains a key country in the American fight against terrorism to this day, despite the fact that the whole world is watching the actions of Iraq and Afghanistan. The photo was taken in the Shah Mansoor refugee camp, Swabi city.


Somalia. Located in southeast Africa. There has been no peace in this country since 1990, just since the government ceased to exist. The leader was Mohamed Siada, who was overthrown in 1992. Immediately after that, the rebels split into groups that obeyed different dictators. The United States intervened in the conflict in 1992, but withdrew its troops two years later due to Black Hawk Down. In 2006, the government of the Organization of Islamic Courts stabilized the situation in the country, but not for long. The country is ruled by rebels and only a small part is controlled by Sheikh Sharif from the Islamic Courts. The photo shows a woman cooking in a refugee camp.


In general, several dictators are trying to control Somalia.


Philippines. The conflict in this country has been going on for more than 40 years, and is therefore considered the longest war in all of Asia. In 1969, a communist rebel group formed and called itself the New People's Army. The group set itself a goal - to overthrow Ferdinand Marcos, who died in 1989. Even Norway tried to resolve the conflict, but was unsuccessful. The "New People's Army" even recruits children into its ranks; children make up about 40% of the entire army. Photo taken in Luzon.


Gaza. In 2007, after bloody fighting, Hamas gained full control of the country. After Israel tightened sanctions, Hamas groups fired rockets at their closest cities. After a large-scale operation carried out by Israel in 2008 to destroy the military potential of Hamas, a huge number of civilians suffered. The photo was taken after an air attack carried out by the Israeli military.


India. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said the Indian Communist Party, known as the Naxalites, was "the most powerful internal force our country has ever faced." Despite the fact that the Naxalite movement was initially a small organization of peasant opposition since 1967, over time it grew into a revolutionary and national liberation movement. The organization's goal is to overthrow the Indian regime. Over the past 10 years, the movement has quadrupled its strength and is currently active in 223 districts of the country. In the photo, supporters of the Communist Party of India protest against paid bus tours in Andhra Pradesh.


On September 11, 2001, American troops destroyed the Taliban and al-Qaeda forces and established a regime under the leadership of President Hamid Karzai. After 8 years, stability has not yet come to the country and this has embittered the Taliban even more. In 2009, new President Obama sent 30,000 American troops into the country to join NATO. In the photo, an Afghan family looks at the soldiers.


Nigeria. An anti-government movement called the Niger Delta emerged in 1995, immediately after the execution of human rights activist Ken Saro-Wiwa and several of his colleagues. This man spoke out against poverty and pollution of the country by oil companies. In the photo, the Niger Delta Movement celebrates its victory over Niger soldiers.


South Ossetia. South Ossetia is a Georgian province that has fallen out of control, located on the border with Russia. The South Ossetian Popular Front, created in 1988, fought for Ossetia to leave the control of Georgia and for them to cooperate with Russia. Some of the largest clashes occurred in 1991,1992, 2004, 2008. In the photo, Russian troops overcome mountains on the way to the South Ossetian conflict.


Central African Republic. Civil war broke out in 2004 after a decade of instability. The rebels, calling themselves the Union of Democratic Forces for Unity, were the first to oppose the government of President Francois Bozizé, who came to power after a coup in 2003. Although the conflict officially ended with a peace agreement on April 13, 2007, isolated incidents of violence continue. Since 2007, the European Union has maintained a contingent of peacekeepers dedicated to protecting civilians and assisting the government. In the photo, French representative Michael Sampic speaks with the head of the village of Dakhele.


Burma. The Karen, an ethnic minority, have been fighting the Burmese government since 1949 to recognize the autonomous region of Kawthoolei, which borders Thailand. This confrontation is considered one of the most protracted internal conflicts in the world. In June 2009, Burmese troops launched an offensive against Karen rebels on the Thailand-Burma border. They managed to destroy 7 rebel camps and drive the remaining 4,000 militants deep into the jungle. The photo shows one of the soldiers with a machine gun on his shoulder from the Karen National Union.


Peru. Since 1980, the Peruvian government has been trying to destroy the Maoist guerrilla organization Shining Path. The partisans seek to overthrow what they believe is the bourgeois government in Lima and establish a “dictatorship of the proletariat.” Although the Shining Path was quite active in the 1980s, the government's arrest of the group's leader, Abimael Guzman, in 1992 dealt a significant blow to their activities. But after a ten-year lull, the Shining Path marked its return with a bomb explosion near the American embassy in Lima in March 2002, which occurred just a few days after the visit of American President George W. Bush. In the photo is Peruvian Interior Minister Luis Alva Castro.

War between people has been going on since very ancient times. I suggest learning about some hot spots over the past few years.
Eastern Congo. Since the militias declared war on the country's ethnic minority, the situation in the country has become very unstable. Since 1994, more than a million Congolese have fled the country as a huge insurgency has formed in the country. Several million Congolese who did not leave were killed. Later in 2003, the National Congress of People's Defense was created, headed by Laurent Nkunda. In 2009, it was captured by Rwandan troops, but the unrest in the country never stopped. The photo was taken in a rebel camp in Goma. People carry their dead relative in a coffin.
Kashmir. When Great Britain renounced its rights to India in 1947, conflicts began in Kashmir that continue to this day. As a result of the collapse, two countries emerged: Pakistan and India. The photo was taken in Srinagar when tear gas was used to disperse the crowd. ICD-10 was also used.
China. In the photo, Chinese soldiers look outside the city of Urumqi, Xinjiang province. Uyghurs make up 45% of the population of the Northwestern Autonomous Region. Since the 90s, the Uighurs have been demanding independence, despite the fact that the region is considered autonomous. During the next Uighur uprising in Urumqi, 150 people died.
Iran. In 2009, an uprising arose in this country, which was called the Green Revolution. It is considered the most significant since 1979. It appeared after the elections, when Ahmadinejad won the presidency. Immediately after the elections, millions of local residents took to the streets in support of Mousavi. Iran has always used weapons to disperse protesters.
Chad. The civil war has been going on here since 2005. Chad has become an excellent refuge for refugees from Darfur and neighboring Central African republics. The photo shows Chadian soldiers.
Eastern Chad. About 500,000 people had to flee to the deserts of Chad and remain there as refugees, creating their own camps. Due to the fact that the two countries are in conflict, a huge number of people are dying. The photo shows women from a refugee camp carrying branches for a fire.
Korea. Even after half a century, relations between North Korea and South Korea remain very tense. In the south of the country, the United States left about 20,000 of its soldiers, because a peace treaty has not yet been signed between these two countries, but this issue is constantly open. The North Korean leader continues to develop Pyongyang's nuclear program, even after the United States tried several times to stop it during negotiations. North Korea first tested its nuclear weapons in 2006, after which they were tested again in 2009. In the photo, soldiers from different sides stand opposite each other on the border that divides the territory into two Koreas.
Pakistan's North West Province. Since 2001, along the border with Afghanistan, Pakistan's North West Frontier Province has seen some of the heaviest fighting between Islamists and Pakistani forces. Many people believe that al-Qaeda leaders are hiding here, which is why American planes constantly fly over here. This place is recognized as the most tense, hot spot in the world. The photo shows a burnt oil tanker, with a Pakistani soldier in the foreground.
Pakistan. This country remains a key country in the American fight against terrorism to this day, despite the fact that the whole world is watching the actions of Iraq and Afghanistan. The photo was taken in the Shah Mansoor refugee camp, Swabi city.
Somalia. Located in southeast Africa. There has been no peace in this country since 1990, just since the government ceased to exist. The leader was Mohamed Siada, who was overthrown in 1992. Immediately after that, the rebels split into groups that obeyed different dictators. The United States intervened in the conflict in 1992, but withdrew its troops two years later due to Black Hawk Down. In 2006, the government of the Organization of Islamic Courts stabilized the situation in the country, but not for long. The country is ruled by rebels and only a small part is controlled by Sheikh Sharif from the Islamic Courts. The photo shows a woman cooking in a refugee camp.
In general, several dictators are trying to control Somalia.
Philippines. The conflict in this country has been going on for more than 40 years, and is therefore considered the longest war in all of Asia. In 1969, a communist rebel group formed and called itself the New People's Army. The group set itself a goal - to overthrow Ferdinand Marcos, who died in 1989. Even Norway tried to resolve the conflict, but was unsuccessful. The "New People's Army" even recruits children into its ranks; children make up about 40% of the entire army. Photo taken in Luzon.
Gaza. In 2007, after bloody fighting, Hamas gained full control of the country. After Israel tightened sanctions, Hamas groups fired rockets at their closest cities. After a large-scale operation carried out by Israel in 2008 to destroy the military potential of Hamas, a huge number of civilians suffered. The photo was taken after an air attack carried out by the Israeli military.
India. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said the Indian Communist Party, known as the Naxalites, was "the most powerful internal force our country has ever faced." Despite the fact that the Naxalite movement was initially a small organization of peasant opposition since 1967, over time it grew into a revolutionary and national liberation movement. The organization's goal is to overthrow the Indian regime. Over the past 10 years, the movement has quadrupled its strength and is currently active in 223 districts of the country. In the photo, supporters of the Communist Party of India protest against paid bus tours in Andhra Pradesh.
Afghanistan. Almost immediately after September 11, 2001, American troops destroyed the Taliban and al-Qaeda forces and established a regime under the leadership of President Hamid Karzai. After 8 years, stability has not yet come to the country and this has embittered the Taliban even more. In 2009, new President Obama sent 30,000 American troops into the country to join NATO. In the photo, an Afghan family looks at the soldiers.
Nigeria. An anti-government movement called the Niger Delta emerged in 1995, immediately after the execution of human rights activist Ken Saro-Wiwa and several of his colleagues. This man spoke out against poverty and pollution of the country by oil companies. In the photo, the Niger Delta Movement celebrates its victory over Niger soldiers.
South Ossetia. South Ossetia is a Georgian province that has fallen out of control, located on the border with Russia. The South Ossetian Popular Front, created in 1988, fought for Ossetia to leave the control of Georgia and for them to cooperate with Russia. Some of the largest clashes occurred in 1991,1992, 2004, 2008. In the photo, Russian troops overcome mountains on the way to the South Ossetian conflict.
Central African Republic. Civil war broke out in 2004 after a decade of instability. The rebels, calling themselves the Union of Democratic Forces for Unity, were the first to oppose the government of President Francois Bozizé, who came to power after a coup in 2003. Although the conflict officially ended with a peace agreement on April 13, 2007, isolated incidents of violence continue. Since 2007, the European Union has maintained a contingent of peacekeepers dedicated to protecting civilians and assisting the government. In the photo, French representative Michael Sampic speaks with the head of the village of Dakhele.
Burma. The Karen, an ethnic minority, have been fighting the Burmese government since 1949 to recognize the autonomous region of Kawthoolei, which borders Thailand. This confrontation is considered one of the most protracted internal conflicts in the world. In June 2009, Burmese troops launched an offensive against Karen rebels on the Thailand-Burma border. They managed to destroy 7 rebel camps and drive the remaining 4,000 militants deep into the jungle. The photo shows one of the soldiers with a machine gun on his shoulder from the Karen National Union.
Peru. Since 1980, the Peruvian government has been trying to destroy the Maoist guerrilla organization Shining Path. The partisans seek to overthrow what they believe is the bourgeois government in Lima and establish a “dictatorship of the proletariat.” Although the Shining Path was quite active in the 1980s, the government's arrest of the group's leader, Abimael Guzman, in 1992 dealt a significant blow to their activities. But after a ten-year lull, the Shining Path marked its return with a bomb explosion near the American embassy in Lima in March 2002, which occurred just a few days after the visit of American President George W. Bush. In the photo is Peruvian Interior Minister Luis Alva Castro. Original entry in its entirety in Ipkins' diary

It seems that today wars are a thing of the past: even the latest studies show that in the third millennium significantly fewer people die during armed conflicts. However, the unstable situation remains in many regions, and hot spots continue to appear on the map every now and then.

We have selected the ten most significant armed conflicts and military crises that threaten the world right now.

Zones of military tension are indicated in red on the maps

Iraq

Participants
Government troops, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), scattered Sunni groups, autonomy of Iraqi Kurdistan.

The essence of the conflict
The terrorist organization ISIS wants to build a caliphate - an Islamic theocratic state - on part of the territories of Iraq and Syria, and so far the authorities have not been able to successfully resist the militants. The Iraqi Kurds took advantage of the ISIS offensive - they freely captured several large oil-producing regions and are planning to secede from Iraq.

Current situation
The ISIS caliphate already extends from the Syrian city of Aleppo to the areas bordering Baghdad. So far, government troops have managed to recapture only a few large cities - Tikrit and Uja. The autonomy of Iraqi Kurdistan has freely taken control of several large oil-producing areas and is planning to hold a referendum on independence in the near future.

Gaza Strip

Participants
Israel Defense Forces, Hamas, Fatah, Gaza Strip civilians.

The essence of the conflict
Israel launched Operation Unbreakable Wall to destroy the infrastructure of the Hamas terrorist movement and other terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip region. The immediate cause was the increased frequency of rocket attacks on Israeli territories and the kidnapping of three Jewish teenagers.

Current situation
On July 17, the ground phase of the operation began after Hamas militants violated a five-hour truce to organize humanitarian corridors. According to the UN, by the time the temporary truce was concluded, there were already more than 200 civilian deaths. The Palestinian President's Fatah party has already stated that their people will “repel Israeli aggression in the Gaza Strip.”

Syria

Participants
Syrian Armed Forces, National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, Syrian Kurdistan, Al-Qaeda, Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, Islamic Front, Ahrar al-Sham, Al-Nusra Front and others.

The essence of the conflict
The war in Syria began after a brutal crackdown on anti-government demonstrations that began in the region in the wake of the Arab Spring. The armed confrontation between the army of Bashar al-Assad and the moderate opposition escalated into a civil war that affected the entire country - now in Syria about 1,500 different rebel groups with a total number of 75 to 115 thousand people have joined the conflict. The most powerful armed groups are radical Islamists.

Current situation
Today, most of the country is controlled by the Syrian army, but the northern regions of Syria are captured by ISIS. Assad's forces are attacking moderate opposition forces in Aleppo, near Damascus the confrontation between ISIS terrorists and militants of the Islamic Front has intensified, and in the north of the country the Kurds are also resisting ISIS.

Ukraine

Participants
Armed Forces of Ukraine, National Guard of Ukraine, Security Service of Ukraine, militias of the Donetsk People's Republic, militias of the Lugansk People's Republic, "Russian Orthodox Army", Russian volunteers and others.

The essence of the conflict
After the annexation of Crimea to Russia and the change of power in Kyiv in the South-East of Ukraine in April of this year, with the support of Moscow, the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics were proclaimed by pro-Russian armed forces. The Ukrainian government and newly elected President Poroshenko launched a military operation against the separatists.

Current situation
On July 17, a Malaysian airliner crashed over separatist-controlled territories. Kyiv blamed the deaths of 223 people on the fighters of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic - the Ukrainian authorities are convinced that the separatists have air defense systems that were transferred to them by the Russian side. The DPR denies any involvement in the plane crash. OSCE representatives are currently working at the crash site. However, the separatists have already shot down planes before, although not at such a height and with the help of man-portable anti-aircraft missile systems. To date, the armed forces of Ukraine have managed to recapture part of the territories from the separatists, in particular the city of Slavyansk.

Nigeria

Participants
Government troops, Boko Haram.

The essence of the conflict
Since 2002, the radical Islamist sect Boko Haram has been operating in Nigeria, which advocates the introduction of Sharia law throughout the country, while only part of the state is inhabited by Muslims. Over the past five years, Boko Haram followers have armed themselves and now regularly carry out terrorist attacks, kidnappings and mass executions. The victims of terrorists are Christians and secular Muslims. The country's leadership has failed negotiations with Boko Haram and is not yet able to suppress the group, which already controls entire regions.

Current situation
Some Nigerian states have been under a state of emergency for a year now. On July 17, the President of Nigeria asked for financial assistance from the international community: the country's army had too outdated and few weapons to fight terrorists. Since April this year, Boko Haram has been holding hostage over 250 schoolgirls who were kidnapped for ransom or sale into slavery.

South Sudan

Participants
Dinka Tribal Union, Nuer Tribal Union, UN Peacekeeping Forces, Uganda.

The essence of the conflict
At the height of the political crisis in December 2013, the president of South Sudan announced that his former ally and vice president had attempted to stage a military coup in the country. Mass arrests and riots began, which subsequently escalated into violent armed clashes between two tribal unions: the country’s president belongs to the Nuer, which dominates politics and the population, and the disgraced vice-president and his supporters belong to the Dinka, the second largest ethnic group in the state.

Current situation
The rebels control key oil-producing areas, the backbone of South Sudan's economy. The UN sent a peacekeeping contingent to the epicenter of the conflict to protect civilians: more than 10 thousand people were killed in the country, and 700 thousand became forced refugees. In May, the warring parties began negotiations for a truce, but the former vice president and rebel leader admitted that he could not completely control the rebels. Resolving the conflict is complicated by the presence of troops from neighboring Uganda in the country, which are on the side of the government forces of South Sudan.

Mexico

Participants
More than 10 drug cartels, government troops, police, self-defense units.

The essence of the conflict
For several decades, there was hostility between drug cartels in Mexico, but the corrupt government tried not to interfere in the fight between the groups for drug traffic. That changed when newly elected President Felipe Calderon sent regular army troops into one of the states in 2006 to restore order there.
The confrontation escalated into a war between the combined police and army forces against dozens of drug cartels across the country.

Current situation
Over the years of conflict, drug cartels in Mexico have turned into real corporations - now they control and divide among themselves the market for sex services, counterfeit goods, weapons, and software. In government and media, large cartels have their own lobbyists and agents who work on public opinion. The cartel war over drug traffic has become secondary; now they are fighting among themselves for control of communications: major highways, ports, border cities. Government forces are losing in this war primarily due to widespread corruption and the massive defection of the armed forces to the side of the drug cartels. In some especially crime-prone regions, the population has formed a people's militia because they do not trust the local police.

central Asia

Participants
Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Pakistan.

The essence of the conflict
The tense situation in the region is maintained by Afghanistan, which has been unstable for decades, on the one hand, and Uzbekistan, which is entering into territorial disputes, on the other. The main drug traffic in the Eastern Hemisphere also passes through these countries - a powerful source of regular armed clashes between criminal groups.

Current situation
After the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan and the presidential elections, another crisis erupted in the country. The Taliban launched a large-scale attack on Kabul, while participants in the election race refused to recognize the results of the presidential election.
In January of this year, an armed conflict began between border services on the border of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan - each side is confident of violating the other’s border. There is still no agreement between the countries on clear demarcation of borders. Uzbekistan also presented its territorial claims to neighboring Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan - the country's authorities are not satisfied with the borders that were formed as a result of the collapse of the USSR. A few weeks ago, the next stage of negotiations began to resolve the conflict, which since 2012 could at any time turn into an armed one.

China and countries of the region

Participants
China, Vietnam, Japan, Philippines.

The essence of the conflict
After the annexation of Crimea to Russia, the situation in the region deteriorated again - China again started talking about territorial claims to Vietnam. The disputes concern the small but strategically important Paracel Islands and the Spratly Archipelago. The conflict is exacerbated by the militarization of Japan. Tokyo decided to revise its peace constitution, begin militarization and increase its military presence in the Senkaku Archipelago, which is also claimed by the PRC.

Current situation
China has completed development of oil fields near disputed islands that have sparked protests from Vietnam. The Philippines sent its military in support of Vietnam and carried out an action that angered Beijing - the troops of the two countries played an exhibition game of football in the Spratly archipelago. There are still Chinese warships a short distance from the Paracel Islands. Among other things, Hanoi claims that the Chinese have already deliberately sunk one Vietnamese fishing boat and damaged 24 others. However, at the same time, China and the Philippines oppose Japan's policy of militarization.

Sahel region

Participants
France, Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, Sudan, Eritrea and other neighboring countries.

The essence of the conflict
In 2012, the Sahel region experienced its largest humanitarian crisis: the negative impact of the crisis in Mali coincided with severe food shortages. During the civil war, most Tuaregs from Libya emigrated to northern Mali. There they proclaimed the independent state of Azawad. In 2013, the Malian military accused the president of failing to deal with the separatists and staged a military coup. At the same time, France sent its troops into Mali to fight the Tuaregs and the radical Islamists who joined them from neighboring countries. The Sahel is home to the largest markets for arms, slaves, drugs on the African continent and the main hideouts for dozens of terrorist organizations.

Current situation
The UN estimates that more than 11 million people in the Sahel region are currently hungry. And in the near future this number may increase to 18 million. In Mali, clashes between government troops and the French army against Tuareg guerrilla groups and radical Islamists continue, despite the fall of the self-proclaimed state of Azawad. And this only increases the instability and humanitarian crisis in the region - in 2014, the presence of terrorist groups increased in almost all countries of the Sahel.

The planet's "hot spots" are a kind of unhealed old wounds. From year to year, temporarily extinct conflicts flare up in these places, bringing pain to humanity. Experts from the International Crisis Group have compiled the top ten major political crises that, according to analysts, will continue this year

Afghanistan
The country's government, plagued by factional warfare and corruption, has been unable to maintain security in the country since the withdrawal of US and NATO troops in 2014. Kabul's relations with Washington deteriorated markedly in 2012, especially after large numbers of people were killed in February following reports that US troops burned dozens of Korans. The culmination of the events were the March events, when American soldier Robert Bales shot 17 villagers, including 9 children, in the southern province of Kandahar. All this provoked a series of attacks by Afghan troops. After which, mistrust arose between the military leaders of Afghanistan and the United States. Experts predict continued disagreements in the ranks of the ruling elite, which the Taliban guerrilla movement will not fail to take advantage of.

Iraq

As the state of chaos in Syria intensifies, battle formations are being more actively formed in Iraq. The Shiite government under the leadership of Nouri al-Maliki is entering into conflicts with other religious and ethnic groups in Iraq, increasing control over political institutions of power, while violating the principle of equal distribution of power between Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish parties. Given this state of affairs, and with the next elections scheduled for 2014, experts predict an increase in violence that will lead to a new round of internal hostility.

Sudan
The “Sudan problem” with the secession of the South in 2011 was not resolved. The concentration of power and wealth in the hands of a small elite intensifies further disintegration in the country. The ruling National Congress party has not been able to get rid of internal party differences, and popular discontent continues to grow in the country, primarily associated with the deteriorating economic situation. The growing struggle against the Sudanese Revolutionary Front, which has become a union of large rebel groups from the states of Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile, is emptying the treasury and leading to numerous civilian casualties. Acting in exactly the same way as in the South, the government uses humanitarian aid as a bargaining tool, essentially turning mass starvation into an element of its military strategy.

Türkiye

Winter frosts in the mountains caused the suspension of hostilities by the rebel movement calling itself the Kurdistan Workers' Party. But, according to experts, this will not affect the further development of the long-term confrontation, which looks threatening in the spring of 2013. Since the start of hostilities, 870 people have already died. Additionally, Turkish security forces resumed counter-terrorism operations in mid-2011. These are the largest losses in this conflict since the 90s. Political tensions in Turkey are also growing as the legally functioning Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party increasingly sides with the Kurdistan Workers' Party. In turn, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan intends to deprive parliament members from this party of immunity from prosecution. The state has already arrested several thousand Kurdish activists, accusing them of terrorism. The Turkish government also ended secret negotiations it had held with the Kurdistan Workers' Party since 2005 and abandoned most of the "democratic initiatives" that offered hope for greater equality and justice for the 12-15 million Turkish Kurds who make up 20% of the country's population. Most likely, in 2013, the rebels will continue to try to hold areas in the southeast of the country and carry out attacks on symbols of the Turkish state.

Pakistan

Drone attacks in 2012 continued to create tension between the United States and Pakistan, although the country reopened supply lines to NATO troops in early July after the United States apologized for a deadly attack on Pakistani soldiers in November 2011 . With elections due in Pakistan in 2013, the Pakistani government and opposition urgently need to implement key reforms in the Election Commission to cement the transition to democracy. The ruling Pakistan People's Party and its main parliamentary opposition rival Nawaz Sharif's Muslim League must put aside political differences and focus on getting the military to stop undermining democracy.

In 2012, instability in sub-Saharan Africa increased. Topping the list of trouble spots is Mali, where a military coup took place in March and overthrew the government. Separatists associated with Al-Qaeda have seized power in the north of the country. The coming year will see much-needed international intervention in Mali and, more importantly, the start of a political process of reunification. On the intervention side, the Economic Community of West African States ECOWAS and the African Union have already approved a 3,300-troop mission to help the state wrest control of the northern part of the country from Islamist militants. The matter remains only with the official permission of the UN Security Council, which it must give for such actions. The Sahel region is also home to another troubling conflict in northern Nigeria. There, the radical Islamist group Boko Haram has killed thousands of people in recent years. The government has responded with unconvincing and confused talk about possible negotiations, while at the same time pursuing brutal and sometimes indiscriminate security measures. And this leads to the expansion of violence and the arrival of more and more recruits into the ranks of extremists. Without concerted and sustained action and decisive changes in government policy, northern Nigeria could face more bloodshed in 2013.

Democratic Republic of the Congo

In April 2012, in the east there was a rebellion by rebels from the M-23 group - these are former rebels who became military, and then turned into rebels again. The country is fighting to prevent another regional war in the DRC. The consequences of the new wave of violence have been tragic for civilians, with increasing reports of widespread human rights violations, summary executions, and mass exodus of local populations. Now, thanks to the mediation efforts of the International Conference of the Great Lakes Region, the M-23 militants have left the eastern city of Goma and sat down at the negotiating table. However, the risk of a recurrence of insurgency and large-scale violence remains.

Kenya

Despite reforms to address the violence that occurred during the 2007 elections in Kenya, the reasons for continued conflict in the country remain. Youth unemployment, poverty and inequality, the suspension of security reforms, land disputes - all this is exacerbating the crisis in the country and increasing inter-ethnic polarization. Moreover, with elections scheduled for March 2013 approaching, the risk of political violence is growing. The two main presidential contenders, Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, are accused of crimes against humanity and are due to stand trial at the International Court of Justice in April 2013. On the one hand, this gives rise to hope that the country has finally made serious attempts to eliminate the long-term impunity of the political elite, and on the other, these criminal cases can just as easily extinguish the hope for government accountability. The elections are also likely to be held amid threats of attack from the Somalia-based militant group al-Shabab and protests by separatists from the Mombasa Republican Council. Both could provoke a backlash against Kenya's large community of Somalis and Muslims. And this threatens to further destabilize the country, which is facing an already difficult year.

Syria and Lebanon

The conflict in Syria continues, and with it the death toll increases. Experts do not rule out that this situation will continue. Although representatives of this region and other countries are talking about the impending fall of the regime, the first stage after Assad's departure will be extremely dangerous, both for the Syrian people and for the Middle East as a whole. President Bashar al-Assad's actions against those who oppose his rule are tearing Syrian society apart. In response, the opposition is gradually radicalizing, further pushing the situation into a vicious circle of violence in which both sides increasingly rely on military force, abandoning political solutions. Syria's religious and political communities are becoming increasingly polarized, and regime supporters are stubbornly resisting with an increasingly violent, kill-or-be-killed approach, fearing large-scale retaliation if the Assad regime falls. The violence burning Syria creates favorable conditions for strengthening the positions of uncompromising Sunni Islamists, who have managed to rally around them those who are disillusioned with the West. This strengthening is due in no small part to the funding they receive from the Gulf countries and the military assistance and knowledge of jihadists from various countries. To reverse this disastrous trend, the opposition needs to articulate a more compelling and less nihilistic vision for Syria's future. And members of the international community need to coordinate their actions, moving the fight in Syria from the plane of destructive military actions to the plane of a political settlement.
The Syrian conflict inevitably crosses the country's borders, spilling over into Lebanon, especially as it takes on the characteristics of a sectarian war. The experience of history does not bode well, since Beirut has almost always been under the influence of Damascus. Against this backdrop, it is critical that Lebanese leaders address the underlying flaws in their governance structure, which are fueling factional infighting and leaving the country vulnerable to chaos in its neighborhood.

central Asia

A potentially dangerous region that includes countries on the brink of conflict. For example, Tajikistan moved into 2013 without showing anything good in the outgoing year. Relations with Uzbekistan continue to deteriorate, and internal disputes threaten to intensify separatist ambitions in Gorno-Badakhshan. This remote mountainous province does not like the central government in Dushanbe. The hostility dates back to the 90s, when there was a struggle for power. From time to time, confrontations between government forces and local militants, many of whom are veterans of the civil war in Tajikistan, spill over into the open. Dushanbe calls the militants members of organized crime. Some of them served in the Tajik border troops. In Kyrgyzstan the situation is no better. Ethnic tensions and law and order problems are growing in the south. The presidential administration still turns a blind eye to problems in the field of interethnic relations. The power of the central government in the Osh region is gradually weakening. Human rights continue to be violated in Uzbekistan. The situation is aggravated by the lack of political continuity: it is still unclear who will come to power after the departure of 74-year-old President Islam Karimov from the scene. Experts believe that the country has the preconditions for new unrest in the region. If the emerging trends continue, violence awaits Kazakhstan in the coming year. In 2012, a record number of terrorist attacks were carried out by previously unknown jihadist groups in the western and southern parts of the country. Astana's attempts to portray itself as a steadfast ship in a regional sea of ​​unpredictability are doomed to fail as the country faces the killing of protesters and jailing of activists. Socio-economic adversity can also harm Kazakhstan.