Bookmaker surebets strategy with examples: calculator, formulas. Strategy Bookmaker surebets using examples: calculator, formulas Bet on well-known events

How to use bookmaker's sure bets correctly in order to have a stable income, all the intricacies of playing with sure bets based on real reviews.

What are bookmaker sure bets

Bookmaker arbs (arbitrage situations) are a betting strategy in which a player bets on one event at different bookmakers, but on mutually exclusive outcomes, and the odds for these outcomes are added up in such a way that the player is guaranteed to make a profit in any scenario.

For a better understanding, let's look at a simple example.

Match Barcelona - Shinnik. For simplicity, let's imagine that this is the Champions League final and there can be no draw. Accordingly, only 2 events are possible:

1. Barcelona will win
2. Shinnik will win

The 1st Bookmaker gives the following odds:

And the 2nd Bookmaker is like this:

This is the fork:

Let's see what will happen for each outcome if we bet on these odds (with a bank of 100 rubles)

For each of the 2 possible outcomes of the event, we remain in the black by 8 rubles. That is, we have profit regardless of how the match ends.

64 rubles, 36... Where did these numbers come from? We calculated them using the formula (analysis of formulas with examples and a calculator is given in the next paragraph).

If anyone doesn’t believe that this happens, here’s a real bet on hockey between two well-known bookmakers

Bank 100 rubles:

Sports bets for double outcomes in football, hockey, basketball do not necessarily have to be for the victory of one or another team. It could be:

• TB 2.5 / TM 2.5
• Victory of one of the teams / draw
• Ф1(1.5) / Ф2 (-1.5)
• Etc., that is, mutually exclusive events

But there are also forks with treble, quarter, etc. outcomes

Examples of arbs with a triple outcome:

• 1X2 – victory of 1 team / draw / victory of 2 teams;
• Sure bets with totals in tennis (if they play up to 2 sets):
  score 2:0 / score 0:2 / total of sets played 3

Three-way arbs can be not only for 3 mutually exclusive outcomes, but also for the following cases:

• When 2 outcomes out of 3 win;
• When your bet is returned based on 1 or 2 outcomes (this applies to bets on handicaps and totals in football).
  Simple example TB(1) / TM(1.5) / TM(0.5). If the score is 1:0 TB(1) bet is refunded and plus TM(1.5) wins.

Example of a quadruple bet

• Outcomes in tennis, if they play to the first 2 sets: 2-0 / 2-1 / 1-2 / 0-2

And even a six-way fork

• By sets in tennis, if they play up to 3 sets: 0:3 / 1:3 / 2:3 / 3:0 / 3:1 / 3:2

Formula for calculating bookmaker surebets

There is a formula to calculate surebets

B = 1/K1 + 1/K2 + 1/K3

IN– A value indicating whether there is a fork or not.

If B>1- no fork,

If in<1 - there is a fork.

K1, K2, K3, K4 etc. – odds for bets on mutually exclusive outcomes, as many probable outcomes as there are odds.

Let's calculate our example:

0,92 < 1 – значит это вилка

Profitability in% = 100 – (B*100)

In our case it is:

100 – (0,92*100) = 8 %

Now let’s determine how much money to bet on each event. There is a formula for this too

P– Size of the bet on the outcome,

TO– coefficient on the outcome,

IN– the value of the fork calculated using the first formula,

WITH– the sum of all bets on an event or the money you have allocated for a sure bet.

Let's say our bank is 100 rubles

We calculate the bet on Barca: 1/1.7/0.92*100r = 64r

We calculate the bet on Shinnik: 1/3.0/0.92*100r = 36r

It is also worth noting that nothing prevents us from redistributing the bet amounts so that winnings on a more likely outcome (the favorite’s victory) gives more profit, and a bet on a less likely outcome (the outsider’s victory) simply gives zero profit, insuring us.

Forks - Online Calculator

To prevent your brain from exploding from all these formulas and not counting it all manually every time, below is an online surebets calculator that will help you do the calculation:

Overrated Middles

Another derivative of forks is overvalued middles. Briefly using an example, we have:

• 1st bookmaker odds 2.0 per TB 0.5
• 2nd bookmaker odds 2.5 on TM 1.5

Accordingly, if 0 goals or more than 1 are scored, then we win, but if there is 1 goal, then 2 bets are played and we have an excess profit. But this is a convergent corridor; there are also non-convergent corridors; more on this in the next article.

Incomplete forks

Another variation is the strategy of incomplete forks or Dutching.

The case when we choose an event and bet on the most likely outcomes, skipping outcomes with low probability. An incomplete arb can be used when placing bets even within the same bookmaker's office.

Negative fork

The same fork, but resulting in a loss.

What's the point then?

They work well in combination with bonus offers from bookmakers: Cash-back, risk free-bet and others.

For example, Free Bet. The bottom line is that the bookmaker gives you a chance to place a bet with his money, and if you are successful, the winnings (minus the amount of the bet) go to you, and if you fail, you do not risk anything, since it is, as it were, the bookmaker’s money.

How can this be applied in practice? This method is called "Matched Betting"

For example:

• You bet 100 rubles with odds of 1.26 on Manchester’s victory,
• In another bookmaker you take advantage of the promotion and make a Free Bet bet of 100 rubles with odds of 3.6 on a Bournemouth win or a draw with the bookmaker’s money.

For any outcome we have about 40% profit

A similar scheme can be done with Cash-Back offers and other similar bookmaker promotions.

Important: always carefully read all the terms of the promotion, because it may turn out that in the pursuit of profit you will not notice the main thing, which is always hidden behind the asterisks. For example, to withdraw the money you have won, you need to scroll the amount in your account 3 more times. But this is also not a problem, how to get out of this situation further.

Negative arbs are often used as an alternative to regular arbs when they do not appear to wager bonus funds (wager). That is, they help to scroll through funds the required number of times without significant losses.

Unclear? Example: you registered with a bookmaker and the bookmaker happily gave you a $200 bonus for replenishing your deposit. But he put them not on your real account, but on the bonus one. Having set the condition: that they will be transferred to real money when the turnover of funds in bets is $2000, and the coefficient must not be lower than 2.0. The question arises: how to make such a turnover without the risk of losing your hard-earned money? The answer to it can be a fork, and if there is none (after all, you are limited in the choice of bookmaker and odds), then a negative fork (for lack of fish and cancer fish), which will allow you to unscrew the required amount with minimal loss.

Additionally

And finally, if there is not enough information, a video from YouTube: arbs on sports betting in bookmaker

The sensational business trend at the end of 2016 is not slowing down, but only gaining momentum. Finding high-quality training in this business is quite difficult, it is not publicly available, and if it is, it is pseudo experts who really don’t know anything about surebet. The essence of making money is as simple as two fingers. I want to warn you that this is not predicting events or tossing a coin. A bookmaker's sure bet is an opportunity to make a profit regardless of the outcome of the game, betting on all possible results. This is possible due to the difference in winning odds in different bookmakers.

WHAT IS THE APPROXIMATE PROFIT AND HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE?

It all depends on the amount you are willing to invest in your business. The average profit is 400-900 percent of the bank amount monthly. Accordingly, the larger the bank, the higher the income. As for time, at first it will take no more than 1-2 hours. Later, as the bank gradually increases, you will decide for yourself how much time to devote to this. Place more bets and increase profitability, or continue as usual.

HOW IT WORKS?

For example, there is one football match where two teams are playing - Manchester United and Chelsea. Manchester United has a coefficient of 1.88, and Chelsea has a coefficient of 3.92. Using a special service, we calculate how much money to bet on teams, from an initial bank of 1000 rubles. We bet on Manchester United - 675 rubles, and on Chelsea 325 rubles. One of the teams will lose, but we do not lose anything, since the second one wins and we win back 1000 rubles and a profit of 270 rubles on top. This was an example of how it works. You can bet any amount and play for any amount of time.

CONTACTS: Viber +7 982 72 30 825 EMAIL: [email protected]

Trying to beat the bookmaker and earn more money, players use a variety of techniques in order to increase their own capital and minimize possible risks. One of these methods is sure bets in bookmakers.

Fork, or an arbitrage situation is a sports betting strategy, the essence of which is to bet on various outcomes in order to be guaranteed to make a profit or not to lose.

Fork– several bets from different bookmakers on one event, in which the player, regardless of the result of the match, earns or, at a minimum, does not lose anything.

Forks– bets on opposite outcomes, which in any case allow you to earn or at least not lose part of the bank on a deal with a bookmaker.

Forks are formed due to the difference in odds in different offices. Sometimes companies do not have time to notice changes in quotes from competitors.

How to find forks?

The most tedious way- this is to monitor the lines of many companies in order to identify discrepancies in quotes. This method is no longer relevant, as it takes too much time and does not always give the expected result.

On the Internet they came up with the idea of ​​searching for sure bets arb scanners– special services or programs that scan bookmaker sites automatically and, thanks to scripts, detect forks.

Flaw The point is that they are paid, but almost every one of these resources provides surebets for free, but their profitability is limited to one percent. Some offer arbs of more than 1%, but for a trial period.

Best services:

Popular programs (scanners):

• RebelBetting;
• TheForks (service for professionals, review).

Fork shoulders

Fork shoulders– these are the betting options that form fork.

Fork shoulders- these are different outcomes of a certain event on which a bet is made.

Forks in bookmakers they do not always bring the same amount of income from each arm. The player independently distributes the amount of bets so as to earn more for a given result. The main thing is not to go into the red, that is, not to lose money.

Fork example

Consider the recent match between Chelsea and Tottenham. The level of the teams is approximately the same; there should not be a strong spread in the quotes. Each office has its own odds for outcomes, but in general the picture is similar:

• The Betting League distributed the odds as follows: Chelsea win – 2.1, draw – 3.2 and Tottenham win – 4.6;
• Fonbet offers the following odds: W1 – 2.6, draw – 3.1, W2 – 4.1;
• Leon assessed the strength of the clubs as follows: Chelsea's win - 2.5, draw - 3.4, Tottenham's triumph - 4.2.

Such a difference in odds may allow you to make guaranteed money, but for this you need to correctly calculate the size of each bet (the amount of the bet on each arm) and conclude them in a timely manner.

How to identify a fork?

There are various scanners and special programs to search for sure bets, but most often they are paid. There is almost no high-quality software in the public domain, so we will use the formula:

B = 1/ K1 + 1/ K2 + 1/ K3… + 1/ Kn, Where:

• B – value indicating the presence or absence of a fork;
• K1, K2, K3, Kn – coefficients for mutually exclusive events.

If the value of B<1 – вилка есть, а если B>1 – no plug.

From the example above, we take the most favorable odds - P1 for 2.6 from Fonbet, a draw for 3.4 from Leon and P2 for 4.2 from the Betting League. Substitute the numbers into the formula.

B = 1 / 2.6 + 1/ 3.4 + 1 / 4.2 = 0.91, that is, 0.91<1, значит, вилка есть (числа округлены).

How to determine the profitability of a fork?

Profitability is calculated using the following formula:

Yield in % = 100 – (B * 100).

In our example it is: 100 – (0.91 * 100) = 9%. This means that the fork will bring 9% profit.

How to calculate the bet amount for an arb?

For the correct distribution of amounts to fork shoulders There are surebets calculators, but you can also use the formula:

P= (1/ K/ B) * C, Where:

• P – bet amount on the outcome;
• K – coefficient for the outcome;
• B – fork value;
• C – the bet size for the event that you have allocated for the arb.

For example, for the above arb (Chelsea - Tottenham match) I have 1000 rubles (in the formula this is C). We calculate the bet amount for each outcome:

– on P1 we set: 1 / 2.6 / 0.91 * 1000 = 422.65 rubles;

– on H we set: 1 / 3.4 / 0.91 * 1000 = 323.20 rubles;

– on P2 we set: 1 / 4.2 / 0.91 * 1000 = 261.64 rubles.

Let's look at possible options for how the fight will end:

– P1: 422.65 rub. * coefficient 2.6 = 1098.89, net profit = 98.89 rubles.

– N: 323.20 rub. * coefficient 3.4 = 1098.88, net profit = 98.88 rubles.

– P2: 261.64 rub. * coefficient 4.2 = 1098.88, net profit = 98.88 rubles.

Regardless of the result of the match, we would have earned almost 100 rubles without risking anything.

To get more profit, distribute your money on bets so that a bet on the most likely result (the favorite wins) brings more earnings, and a bet on the less likely result (the outsider wins) simply returns the money bet.

Arb calculator

This tool not only simplifies calculations, but also saves time, which I think is very important. This is exactly what a fork calculator is for. In addition, when you manually count dozens, or even hundreds of times every day, your brain explodes, there are only numbers in front of your eyes, and only numbers in your thoughts.

A convenient, understandable and simple calculator is provided by the PlayBookmaker resource. There is no need to download anything - the calculator is available online (to open, click ). Select the type of bet, enter the odds and the amount allocated for this bet - the system itself will give you the bet amount for each outcome and profit (profitability). The result was the same thing that we calculated using the formula, only with greater accuracy (to every penny, without rounding) and much faster.

Types of forks

Sports forks– these are not only bets on the outcome of the match, but also on other mutually exclusive markets, for example:

• TB/TM;
• Ф1(-2.5) / Ф2(+2.5);
• Ф1(0) / Ф2(0);
• P1/X2;
• TB(2) / TM (2.5) / TM (1.5) – a refund is possible for one of the TB (2) outcomes. If the score is 2:0 (1:1, 0:2), there will be one return of the bet, but TM (2.5) will win. Although the bet TM (1.5) will lose, we will still be in the black if we placed the fork correctly.

Forks can be sorted by the number of possible outcomes:

• two arms (outcomes) – these are sports where a draw is impossible, TB/TM, mutually exclusive handicaps;
• three arms (outcomes) – team sports, most often football, because a draw in basketball, although possible, is rare;
• four arms (outcomes) – for example, the exact score in a tennis match (2:0, 0:2, 2:1 and 1:2);
• six-way fork - the same tennis matches, if the game can consist of five sets, or volleyball matches (3:0, 0:3, 3:1, 1:3, 3:2 and 2:3).

Incomplete forks

Incomplete forks– these are bets on events from three possible outcomes, in which one outcome, the least likely, does not overlap. This type of forks does not guarantee a 100% win, since the risk of losing two bets is present, albeit insignificant.

Example incomplete fork in the match Atalanta - Juventus:

• Fonbet set the following odds: P1 – 5.55, X – 3.85, P2 – 1.55;
• Leon offers the following quotes: P1 – 5.75, X – 3.65, P2 – 1.65.

A victory for Atalanta is an unlikely result, so we discard this bet and bet only on W2 and a draw. For a Juventus win, we take Leon’s odds, since it is higher, and for a draw, we take Fonbet’s odds.

We calculate the bet amount using the formula given above.

Cons of the strategy is that there is a chance to lose two bets and earn nothing. Plus is a greater income if one of the two selected outcomes occurs.

Arbs between online and offline bookmakers

There are situations when forks can form between the website of one office and the betting point of another.

The difficulty lies in the search - you cannot regularly visit bookmaker offices, find out the odds for the entire line and compare with other land-based or online bookmakers. This takes time, and such activities may not bring the expected results.

Live sure bets

Surebets in live mode have their advantages, the main of which are the presence of more profitable sure bets, and the fact that it is more difficult for the bookmaker to identify the sure bettor if he bets live. In addition, in live, as a rule, there are more forks and they appear much more often.

Flawsliveforks lies in the lack of free, high-quality programs for identifying surebets in live situations. Therefore, it is necessary to study various events in different bookmakers for a long time and constantly in order to find a sure bet and place appropriate bets. And this takes a lot of time.

One of the main disadvantages of such arbs is that you may not have time to place a bet - the odds often change, especially if the match is dynamic and there is a “swing” in it (one or the other team has an advantage). Unfortunately, live arbs, especially highly profitable ones, do not “live” for long - you need to have time to find them and place appropriate bets.

It is advisable to exclude sure bets for the same game in the same bookmaker’s office. It’s better to place these bets, but with different bookmakers. Often in tennis matches, the odds initially for one tennis player are 2.5, and for his opponent – ​​1.5 (for example). Since one or another athlete may take the lead in a match, the quotes change dramatically. If the first player, odds. which was 2.5 comes out ahead, then the odds. per losing player increases from 1.5 to 2.1 (for example). This is one example of how easy it is to catch arbs in live.

How to manage to place forks on the shoulder in live?

The advice is very simple, but useful.

First of all, you need to bet on an outcome that cannot be won back. For example, if the score is 1:1 and a TB (2.5) / TM (2.5) fork has formed, then bet on TB (2.5) first. If you bet TM (2.5) in one bookmaker, then while you are completing a deal in another bookmaker on TB (2.5), the teams may score a goal and you will lose.

If first of all you bet on TB (2.5) and the teams scored a goal, then nothing bad will happen. Although you won’t bet a fork, you don’t need one, because you’ve already won. Everything must be done promptly, because as the fight progresses, the quotes on TM will decrease.

Why do forks appear?

There may be several reasons why forks come from:

1. Office competition – the higher the odds compared to competitors, the more clients;
2. The inability to monitor the movement of quotes from all bookmakers in the world, and there are a lot of them;
3. Difference of opinion - major bookmakers who independently form the line have their own analytical department consisting of experts who set the initial value of the odds;
4. Professional players betting huge amounts;
5. Manipulation of the bookmakers themselves to create forks.

I want to talk about the last two points in more detail. There are bookmakers that block arbers (we’ll look at how not to give yourself away and avoid a bookmaker’s ban for playing on arbs below), but there are also those that treat them acceptably.

Let's imagine a match where there is a clear favorite and an underdog. The odds for the favorite to win are 1.3, and for the underdog to triumph – 6.0. And then the pros appear who have done a competent analysis or received insider information about the favorite’s 100% win. They place bets on this event in large bookmakers (for greater security). There is a sharp imbalance in the odds in this office, and now on P1 instead of 1.3 they give 1.2, and on P2 instead of 6.0 they give 7.0. Thus, an arb with small offices appears, in which arbers begin to execute transactions.

The following happens:

• players place a bet on the favorite in another office - let's call it a donor;
• bets on an outsider are placed with a major bookmaker.

As a result, it turns out that a large bookmaker accepts bets on a less likely outcome, and the donor company accepts bets on a more likely outcome. It turns out that users lose part of the amount in a large bookmaker (it makes a profit, which is why it created the arb, perhaps on purpose), but in return they win in another office, which calculates the winning bets for the arbers.

Dangers when using forks

Forks are risk-free bets, but in reality there are pitfalls everywhere.

Maximum limits. If the game is successful, the office has the right to reduce the amount of the maximum bet - sure bets will become almost useless, since they will bring in pennies.

Line error. Bookmakers can use such a clause in the rules, indicating an error by employees or software in setting quotes. The bet is calculated based on the return, which does not make the strategy a win-win.

Change of odds. When placing one bet, the odds for the opposite one may change and the sure bet will disappear. It is important to place bets almost simultaneously.

Freezing bets– when, having made one bet, it is not possible to place the next one due to the fact that the bookmaker has suspended accepting bets (as a rule, this happens in live, but this is also possible in pre-match).

Taxation, commission on withdrawal of funds. If you do not have a significant capital, the profit from sure bets will not be large. Moreover, it is not so large that it will be “eaten up” by the commission upon withdrawal or a tax of 13%.

BC rules. Each bookmaker has their own. So, if a tennis player is injured, one office can issue a refund, and the second can count the loss.

Account blocking. The bookmaker may interpret sure bets as “unfair play,” which leads to account blocking and possibly confiscation of funds.

How to place sure bets without being figured out?

Don't bet the whole bank.

By betting your maximum deposit on one event, especially regularly, this indicates to the bookmaker that you are confident in the outcome. This is not typical behavior for the average user.

In addition, you will constantly have to redistribute funds between the accounts of different offices, because one of them will always have a zero balance. And these are additional commissions when transferring funds.

Simulate the game of a regular client as much as possible.

Round up your bet amounts.

Bets of 945.55 or 2477 rubles look suspicious.

Avoid fatty forks.

Do not place bets on highly profitable sure bets. Most likely, the bet will be canceled and the bookmaker will report a typo in the line.

Perhaps such a fork was formed on purpose in order to catch a portion of arbers and observe them more carefully.

Deposit, withdrawal of funds.

Deposit and withdraw money less frequently. As a rule, an ordinary player accumulates money on his balance rather than withdrawing it after each bet.

Double check.

Before placing a bet, double-check the value of the quotes - scanners and programs may make mistakes.

Bet on famous events.

Choose popular championships and tournaments. Agree that large bets on the second division of football in Kenya and city darts competitions in Denmark look very strange.

UseVPNand proxy.

I recommend using different devices for scanners and bets in bookmakers, so that nothing gives you away as an arber: neither cache nor browser cookies. Your bill may be cut, but using a proxy or VPN will not give away your IP address and you will not be under surveillance.

Is it legal to play for sure?

From a legal point of view, arbs in bookmakers are completely legal, just like regular interactive bets.

The office offers an odd, and you agree with it by placing a bet. It is not prohibited to make money in this way in a bookmaker, although most bookmakers have a negative attitude towards arbers and hinder them in every possible way.

If sure bets are profitable, why are so few people doing them?

Firstly, not many people know about them.

Secondly, few people believe that they can make money this way.

Thirdly, each method of making money on bets has its own disadvantages and risks.

Fourthly, an impressive initial capital is required for significant profits.

How much can you earn on sure bets?

Specific numbers depend on money turnover: the larger it is, the higher the income.

The number of sure bets placed also affects the level of earnings. On average, you can receive 10-15% per month from your bankroll consistently.

The time investment is small - a few hours a day, but again, if you want to increase profits, then spend more time searching for sure bets, or use paid software. Believe me, if you notice a good increase in the initial deposit, you yourself will involuntarily begin to devote more time to arbitrage.

The best bookmakers for arbs

Play in legal bookmakers, although you can use foreign giants if you are outside of Russia. For example, Pinnacle and Sbobet are suitable.

Use to choose the most suitable companies. Avoid suspicious and unreliable companies.

Pros and cons of forks

Serious turnover of money in several offices. If this point is not met, sure bets lose any meaning, since they are not worth the time costs and risks. It’s stupid to bet 10-20 thousand rubles to get 100-200.

Offices do not like arbers and hunt for them. The client may be prohibited from placing a bet, but this is still good, because at least the deposit is returned. Unfortunately, most bookmakers block the accounts of arbers and the money is either not returned to them, or the payment process is delayed for several months. The rules of the office are structured in such a way that it can refer to several points and cancel the payment. You will only have to prove your case in court. Office security departments were formed for a reason.

Guaranteed Win Regardless of the outcome of the event, this is the only plus. Surebets are precisely for making money. Nothing more is needed.

Conclusion. Was it worth putting forks?

Forks– this is a tedious task that requires a lot of time to identify an arbitrage situation. Also you need decent gaming bank, distributed in several offices. Despite the fact that there is a risk of being blocked, arbs are almost win-win bets if you choose reliable bookmakers, do not impersonate the arber, and bet correctly.

For many, making money on sure bets is the only way to make a profit from a bookmaker, which is what players use. But it is not recommended to get carried away with sure bets - find a middle ground, and then even such an activity will bring a stable income.