Shortage of fresh people. The birth rate on the planet is falling: in eastern countries faster than in western ones

Was based on projections and estimates by the United Nations Population Division. The birth rate was calculated as the number of births per 1000 inhabitants of the country. The UN list was compiled for the period 2005-2010. The second was created in 2009 based on data from the CIA World Fact Book.

According to the UN list, the two special administrative regions of the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong and Macau, have the lowest birth rates. In both countries, there are 7.6 newborns per 1,000 inhabitants. According to the CIA list, the last places are occupied by Hong Kong with a coefficient of 7.42 and Japan - 7.64. European countries are not lagging behind Asian countries. Germany, Italy and Austria also have low birth rates.

Hong Kong

Macau

European countries

According to the demographic forecast of Rosstat, natural population decline will increase and from 2025 will exceed 400 thousand people annually; a slowdown in population decline is predicted only closer to the 2030s. International migration (according to the forecast, the influx of migrants will be less than 300 thousand people per year) in the future will not be able to compensate for the population decline.

In December 2017, the head of the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection, Maxim Topilin, said that the birth rate in Russia is insufficient to ensure population growth, and in the coming years the situation will only worsen, as the number of women of childbearing age in the country will decrease by a quarter or even more.

“The number of women of reproductive age will decrease by 28% by 2032 or 2035.” Unfortunately, it is not possible to assume that in this situation the absolute number of births will remain at the level of 1.8-1.9 million,” said Topilin.

The birth rate in the Russian Federation in 2017 was the lowest in the last 10 years

(Video: RBC TV channel)

Ramilya Khasanova, a researcher at the Institute of Social Analysis and Forecasting at RANEPA, explained to RBC that the birth rate will decline in the next 15 years due to the fact that most current mothers were born in the 1990s, when the birth rate was low.

“The number of women - potential mothers is small, and therefore the number of births is also falling,” the expert explained.

Earlier, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development, Maxim Oreshkin, classified the demographic situation in Russia as one. The minister noted that a sharp reduction in the size of the working-age population will be led by the fact that Russians born at the very end of the 1990s, when the maximum decline in the birth rate was recorded in its composition, are beginning to be taken into account.

“The generation is very small, so the negative dynamics in terms of the working-age population will continue. The situation from a demographic point of view is one of the most difficult in the world: we will lose approximately 800 thousand people of working age every year due to the demographic structure,” Oreshkin said.

In response to the challenge of low birth rates, the president talks about “rebooting” the country’s demographic policy. From January 1, two new monthly benefits appeared in Russia. At the birth of the first child and until he reaches one and a half years of age, families are provided with a monthly payment equal to the regional subsistence minimum per child (on average in 2018 it is 10.5 thousand rubles). From maternity capital funds (the program has been extended until the end of 2021), families can receive monthly payments upon the birth of a second child. Both payments are provided to families whose average per capita income does not exceed 1.5 times the regional subsistence level. In addition, for families with a second and third child, a special program for subsidizing mortgage rates (the state will cover the cost of servicing a mortgage in excess of 6% per annum).

Khasanova assessed the measures taken by the state as positive. “Maternity capital influenced a slight increase in the number of third and second births. It will increase the opportunity for young families to rise out of poverty. The benefit adopted for the first child will most likely not be such an effective way to increase the number of births, but it will affect the birth calendar: those who were planning to give birth in the next few years will hurry up,” she said.

The Russian labor market is losing its attractiveness for migrants; without them, it will not be possible to make up for the decline in the country’s working-age population, experts from the Center for Strategic Research (CSR) warn in the report “Migration Policy: Diagnosis, Challenges, Proposals,” published on January 26. The total decline in the working-age population by 2030 will range from 11 million to 13 million people, experts say. There are no reserves for the growth of internal migration and to attract foreign labor, according to experts, new migration policy measures are needed - work visas, lottery systems similar to the American Green Card, as well as contracts for the integration of migrants.

Moscow, January 26 - “News. Economy". The greatest decline in population is observed in Eastern European countries, experts say. This is due to a number of factors, including migration of the population to richer and more prosperous countries, as well as a decrease in the birth rate and an increase in mortality. The top ten countries in terms of population decline include Eastern European countries. Below we will tell you more about them. 1. Bulgaria

Population in 2017: 7.08 million Forecast for 2050: 5.42 million Dynamics: -23% The average annual rate of population decline is about 0.7%. 19.6% of the country's residents have higher education, 43.4% have secondary education, 23.1% have basic education, 7.8% have primary education, 4.8% have incomplete primary education, and 1.2% have never attended school. 54.1% of houses in cities and 18.1% in villages have personal computers, and, respectively, 51.4% and 16.4% have Internet access. 2. Latvia

Population in 2017: 1.95 million Forecast for 2050: 1.52 million Dynamics: -22% As a result of natural population decline, when the mortality rate exceeds the birth rate, the total number of residents decreased by 7.1 thousand people, and as a result of migration the number decreased by another 2.5 thousand people. The country's population continues to decline, despite the increase in the birth rate. The largest number of Latvian citizens who emigrated are from Ireland and the UK. 3. Moldova

Population in 2017: 4.05 million Forecast for 2050: 3.29 million Dynamics: -19% In the post-Soviet period, the demographic situation in Moldova is worsening. The main reason for this is the difficult socio-economic situation. In recent years, natural population growth has decreased, emigration abroad of the most efficient and professionally trained part of the country's population has increased, and mortality has increased. 4. Ukraine

Population in 2017: 44.22 million Forecast for 2050: 36.42 million Dynamics: -18% The birth rate in Ukraine is the lowest in Europe, and the lowest birth rate is in the most urbanized regions (Zaporozhye, Donetsk, Lugansk, Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk regions, city ​​of Kyiv). The natural population decline amounted to 183.0 thousand people. Natural population growth was observed only in the Transcarpathian (+1239) and Rivne (+1442) regions and the city of Kyiv (+5133 people). 5. Croatia

Population in 2017: 4.19 million Forecast for 2050: 3.46 million Dynamics: -17% More than 90% of the country's population are Croats, national minorities include Serbs, Bosnians, Hungarians, Albanians, Italians, Slovenes, Germans, Czechs , gypsies and others. The largest national minority are Serbs (186,633 people), living mainly in Slavonia, Lika, Gorski Kotar. Some of the national minorities are concentrated in one region (Italians in Istria, Hungarians along the Hungarian border, Czechs near the city of Daruvar), others are scattered throughout the country (Bosnians, Roma, etc.) 6. Lithuania

Population in 2017: 2.89 million Forecast for 2050: 2.41 million Dynamics: -17% Lithuania is on the list of countries in the world that are disappearing the fastest. The loss of population - 28,366 (1%) was encouraged by the rapid emigration of residents, increased mortality, and decreasing birth rates. According to various sources, about a million residents have left Lithuania since gaining independence and joining the EU in 2004. Most of them went to work in Western European countries. 7. Romania

Population in 2017: 19.68 million Forecast for 2050: 16.40 million Dynamics: -17% Like other countries in the Eastern European region, Romania is experiencing a population decline. The birth rate is 10.5 per 1000 people, the mortality rate is 12.0 per 1000 people. 8. Serbia

Population in 2017: 8.79 million Forecast for 2050: 7.45 million Dynamics: -15% Serbia has one of the most negative population growth rates in the world, ranking 225 out of 233 countries. The total fertility rate is 1.44 children per mother, one of the lowest in the world. 9. Poland

Population in 2017: 38.17 million Forecast for 2050: 32.39 million Dynamics: -15% In recent years, the population of Poland has been gradually decreasing due to increased emigration and falling birth rates. After the country joined the European Union, a large number of Poles emigrated to Western European countries in search of work. Polish diasporas are represented in neighboring countries: Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia, as well as in other countries. 10. Hungary

Population in 2017: 9.72 million Forecast for 2050: 8.28 million Dynamics: -15% The population of Hungary is monoethnic. The majority of residents are Hungarians (92.3%). The decline in the birth rate plays a significant role in the character and lifestyle of modern Hungarians, including the form of cohabitation, time of study and work experience. Among 20-year-old Hungarians, the desire to have children has sharply decreased.

Every year the human population continues to grow. But even so, in some countries the population is declining. The reasons for this depopulation lie in the excess of mortality over the birth rate or in significant emigration of residents. The list of the most endangered countries is given by death rate per 1000 inhabitants, according to the CIA.

1. Lesotho (14.9)

2. Bulgaria (14.5)

This country has long been a member of the “most endangered countries” club. This is because the mortality rate here is 1.5 times higher than the birth rate. Every year the population of Bulgaria decreases by 60 thousand people - practically a small city. Every hour, five Bulgarians die, and a couple more leave the country. At this rate, by 2050 the number of Bulgarians will fall to 4.5 million, and they will no longer be the majority in Bulgaria. But back in 1989 there were 9.1 million. Experts believe that one of the reasons for the extinction of Bulgarians is the uneven development of the country's regions, high mortality and low birth rates.

3. Lithuania (14.5)

According to experts, the population of Lithuania will decrease to less than 2 million people by 2040. Low life expectancy leads to the degeneration of the country. The number of working-age residents of the country is decreasing by 2% annually; soon there will be no one to take care of the country’s economy. Against the backdrop of low birth rates, the population is rapidly aging and there is active emigration.

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4. Ukraine (14.4)

In 1993, it had the largest population - 52.24 million inhabitants. At the beginning of 2016, the population of the territories controlled by the Ukrainian government was only 42.76 million people. UN demographic forecasts leave Ukraine with only 30-32 million by 2050 if the rate of depopulation continues. Another important demographic factor of modern Ukraine is significant emigration, reaching up to 5 million Ukrainians, that is, every eighth.

5. Latvia (14.4)

In 2015, Latvia set a sad anti-record - for the first time since 1954, its population decreased to 2 million inhabitants. That is, the country, which was so zealously eager to join the EU, and finally achieved what it wanted, was left with the same number of inhabitants as it had just a few years after the devastating war and mass repression. During the period 2000-2014, Latvia, which did not participate in any war, lost 380 thousand citizens - 16% of the population. If you consider that approximately 640 thousand people live in Riga and its suburbs, you can imagine that over the years half of these residents have disappeared. Latvia is being killed by mass emigration and the presence of only 63% of able-bodied people among the entire population. This leads to reduced tax collections and withering pensions and healthcare costs.

6. Guinea-Bissau (14.1)

This poor African country only relatively recently intended to follow the path of socialism, but now it makes money by selling drugs, half of which are sent to Europe. Even in the capital of the country there is no stable electricity supply. Only recently did the bloody Civil War end here, and over the past 10 years there have been 4 military coups in Guinea. There is terrible unsanitary conditions in the country, and Ebola fever periodically rages.

7. Chad (14.0)

It is one of the poorest countries in Africa and the world. For many years, Chad's economy followed the interests of France, which shamelessly extracted natural resources from the country, not allowing any other industries to develop. Until now, after gaining independence, Chad cannot cope with hunger and poverty.

8. Afghanistan (13.7)

A person in Afghanistan is less likely to die of old age or even of hunger than to be killed, because the war here has not stopped for many decades. In this country, mortality during childbirth is very high, and 20% of children do not live to be 5 years old. 70,000 Afghans contract tuberculosis every year, which already affects a third of Afghanistan's population. Almost half of Afghans exhibit varying degrees of mental disorders - this is a consequence of constant life on a “powder keg”. For 6 million people there is no way to receive medical care, because the entire infrastructure in the country has been destroyed - there are not even roads to many settlements.

9. Serbia (13.6)

Over the past half century, Serbia has seen a birth rate that is insufficient to replenish the population. Each new generation is smaller than the previous one. Therefore, the country's population is steadily aging, causing mortality to rise. The number of women of childbearing age is decreasing, and fewer children are being born. Thus, there are now 12% more old people over 65 years of age in Serbia than children under 15 years of age. If in the middle of the last century 150 thousand children were born here per year, now this figure has dropped to 68.3 thousand. Added to this is increased emigration.

10. Russia (13.6)

The largest country in the world has been one of those for the last 15 years where the birth rate is lower than the death rate, which is largely due to the increase in morbidity. Russians do not treat most diseases on time, so they regularly become chronic, which does not happen in prosperous countries. That is why there are so many disabled people and high mortality rates in Russia. The majority of the country's population is characterized by an unhealthy lifestyle: consumption of poor-quality water, poor diet, neglect of exercise, smoking, alcoholism and drug addiction. Most Russians now lack access to quality medical care. Regional budgets involve much less public funds than those of developed countries: 3-4% of GDP instead of 7%.

First, let's look at some statistics on fertility in different countries of the world. According to the UN Population Division, the leaders in fertility in the modern world are the poorest countries in Africa. Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea-Bissau and Liberia - 49.6 births per 1000 people per year, Niger - 49.0, of the Asian countries only Afghanistan comes close to them - 48.2. According to the CIA, Niger is in the lead - 51.6 births per 100 people, Mali - 49.2, Uganda - 47.8. The countries with the lowest birth rate per 1000 people according to the UN are Chinese Hong Kong and Macau - 7.6, Singapore and Germany - 8.2, Japan - 8.3, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Bulgaria - 8.9. According to the CIA - Hong Kong - 7.42, Japan - 7.64, Italy and Germany - 8.18. As we can see, both among the leaders and anti-leaders of the list there are Asian and Muslim (a significant part of the population of Bosnia and Herzegovina is Muslim) countries.

Orientalist, historian:

“The birth rate in Europe and America is falling, but in third world countries it is rising.” This phrase sent me into a frenzy because we are dealing with a repetition of a very common myth. In reality, the birth rate “in Third World countries” is not growing at all. It falls there, as everywhere else. Africa held out the longest, but since the late eighties the birth rate has slowly gone down there too. I fiercely entered into an argument, which I decided to post here. The painfully common misconception is “Europe is dying out, and Mexicans are giving birth like rabbits” (in fact, Mexicans are now giving birth less than the French and Danes). The population is growing, and will continue to grow for decades to come, but the birth rate is falling.

: The birth rate in Europe and America is falling, while in third world countries it is rising.

: Why is she growing??? And where???? In which third world countries is TFR currently growing? Can you be more specific???

: AND India, Pakistan, etc.

: I give you a certificate. In India, TFR (total fertility rate, this is the main indicator of fertility, somewhat simplified - the number of children an average woman has) changed as follows: in 1970 there were 5.3 births per woman, in 1996 - 3.4 births per woman , in 2007 - 2.8 births per woman. In other words, there has been a twofold reduction in the birth rate over 40 years. I will add that during this period there was not a single year when the birth rate increased. No one. In some Indian states (Kerala, for example), the birth rate in the last 3-5 years has fallen below the replacement level. Yep, 1.8 births per woman. Slightly better than in Russia.

Let's see what we have in Pakistan. In 1996 there were 5.4 births per woman, in 2007 - 3.7 births per woman. Somehow it doesn’t look like the growth you’re talking about. I would be grateful if you could tell me which third world countries have higher birth rates now than they did in 1990? And even more so than in 1970... The birth rate will fall all over the world, and at a record pace.

: So in India 2.8 births per woman, in Pakistan 3.7 births per woman - this is not an increase in population? Let me remind you that the status quo is 2.2 births per woman. So the population is growing, just not at such a rapid pace. Can you provide statistics for China? They have been fighting the birth rate there for a long time and diligently, but it still does not disappear. That's how bad it is.

: Dear simeon75, I was told that the birth rate is increasing. I said that the birth rate, on the contrary, is declining - and I showed it. The birth rate, measured by any metric, is falling, and very quickly. The population, of course, is growing (for now), but the birth rate will fall.

D For information: the population is (so far) growing in the vast majority of developed countries, although the birth rate there has long been below the replacement level. There is such a thing as demographic inertia.

So here's your answer. The population is growing - almost everywhere (Russia, with its declining population, is a rare exception, although there will soon be many such countries). At the same time, the birth rate is falling - also everywhere. There is no “birth rate increase in the Third World” that was mentioned in the posting.

: You cited statistics for India and Pakistan (without sources, by the way). These are nuclear powers, and they cannot be classified as third world countries. If you claim objectivity, provide data on African countries and Mexico with Palestine. Yes, and it is very interesting to hear about the increase in population in the vast majority of developed countries.

: Regarding the development of India and Pakistan: a) North Korea also has nuclear weapons (if desired, it’s a simple stupid thing), so what? b) named them because these countries were specifically named by the opponent; c) look at the data on Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, which have not yet acquired nuclear weapons and are not classified as developed countries. You will see exactly the same picture there.

About the sources. US Census Administration database, but it is mainly based on UN statistics. About objectivity. I don't claim it. I'm just giving numbers. If you are interested in Mexico and African countries, then I will bring them again - and with great pleasure. For sub-Saharan Africa, the TFR was 5.83 RJ in 1996, and 5.26 RJ in 2006. A decrease, albeit a small one. By the way, this is the only region where there are several countries in which a decrease in TFR has not yet been observed.

Oh yes, Mexico. In 1996 there were 2.7 births per woman, in 2006 - 1.73 births per woman. Namely, the birth rate in Mexico is now slightly lower than in Denmark, but slightly higher than in Belgium.

: I would like to note that the birth rate is actually growing, it’s just that the RATE is falling. So dear Igor was not mistaken. But in Europe and Russia the birth rate is really falling. Moreover, for a long time now and, apparently, there is no end in sight.

: Sorry for being a bit stubborn, but you are wrong. “Fertility” is, you see, a well-known and well-measured statistical indicator. It is usually expressed either in the number of births per 1000 people per year, or in the number of births per average woman (essentially the same thing, but the latter is more clear, and therefore occurs more often). Quite quantifiable indicators, and measurable at a time. So, this figure is decreasing, decreasing everywhere, and very quickly. There are practically no countries where it is simply stable. It is decreasing in India, the USA, Russia, Korea, and China. There is no increase in the birth rate. There are no countries where, to quote you, “the birth rate is really increasing.”

I repeat. The birth rate is measured in very clear numbers. All these figures in all countries (almost all) have a steady downward trend. If you mean population growth, then that's a different matter. The population is growing, but, again, it is growing in most countries. The situation will change soon. The population will begin to shrink and age. First - in developed countries, then - in all.

: Well, in that case, I meant population growth. “The population is growing, but again, it is growing in most countries.” Is it in the majority? And in Western Europe?

: QUOTE “The population is growing, but again, it is growing in most countries.” Is it in the majority? And in Western Europe?

France 2000 - 61.172 million, France 2006 - 63.328 million. Great Britain 2000 - 59.522 million, Great Britain 2006 - 60.609 million. Germany 2000 - 82.187 million, Germany 2006 - 82.422 million.

And so on. You can look at other countries. Reductions have already begun in some places, but not in many places yet. Another thing is that this growth is about to end in the coming years. And it will end because in these countries TFR already in the sixties fell to the level to which in Mexico it fell only ten years ago. Demographic inertia in Europe is ending.

In East Asia, so far this inertia ends only in Japan, but soon, around 2020, the turn of Korea and Hong Kong will come, and then, around 2040-50, China. However, for now, I repeat, the population is growing almost everywhere. By the way, those who are younger will see such a demographic transformation, which simply has no analogues. Old people's societies. First - in Europe, a couple of decades later - in Latin America and East Asia, then - in South Asia. It is not yet clear with the Middle East and Africa. The trends there are similar, but less pronounced. However, in Iran, the birth rate safely fell below the replacement level right at the beginning of the new millennium, in 1999, and now stands at 1.75. Quite Europe, one of the relatively prosperous ones. This means that in sixty years, when families with many children begin to die, the same thing will happen in Iran.

: Interesting numbers. Did not know. Where does this data come from?

: In this case, the USCensus, a section of international statistics.

Groups of countries by birth rate

Let's go back to the statistics again. Based on UN statistics, countries of the world can be divided into several groups based on the number of births per year per 1000 people.

More than 40 births: Democratic Republic of the Congo (with its capital Kinshasa), Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Niger, Afghanistan, Mali, Angola, Burundi, Uganda, Sierra Leone, Chad, Rwanda, Burkina Faso, Somalia, East Timor, Malawi, Benin.

30 to 40 births: Nigeria, Guinea, Mozambique, Eritrea, Zambia, Kenya, Tanzania, Equatorial Guinea, Yemen, Ethiopia, Togo, Madagascar, Central African Republic, Palestine, Ivory Coast, Senegal, Congo (with capital Brazzaville), Gambia, Cameroon, Comoros, Guatemala, Mauritania, Sao Tome and Principe, Iraq, Sudan, Solomon Islands.

20 to 30 births: Ghana, Papua New Guinea, Lesotho, Cape Verde, Vanuatu, Djibouti, Swaziland, Nepal, Haiti, Honduras, Zimbabwe, Bolivia, Tajikistan, Pakistan, Laos, Syria, Cambodia, Jordan, Micronesia, Philippines, Gabon, Namibia, Tonga, Belize, Botswana, Nicaragua, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Paraguay, Samoa, Egypt, French Guiana, Dominican Republic, Libya, Maldives, Western Sahara, India, El Salvador, Uzbekistan, South Africa, Oman, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Brunei, Venezuela, Fiji, Ecuador, Peru, Algeria, Panama, Malaysia, Morocco, Iran, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

From 10 to 20 births: Jamaica, Israel, Kazakhstan, Suriname, Mexico, Brazil, Saint Lucia, Vietnam, Colombia, Indonesia, Bhutan, Guam, Mongolia, Turkey, French Polynesia, Lebanon, Myanmar, Grenada, French Reunion, Kuwait, Costa Rica, Bahrain , Guyana, Bahamas, Tunisia, French New Caledonia, Albania, Azerbaijan, Qatar, UAE, Ireland, Uruguay, Chile, Sri Lanka, Mauritius, French Guadeloupe, Trinidad and Tobago, Thailand, Iceland, Netherlands Aruba, USA, New Zealand, Montenegro, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, North Korea, China, Serbia, Russia (12.6 births per 1000 people), Armenia, Netherlands Antilles, Australia, French Martinique, Cyprus, France, Great Britain, Norway, Luxembourg, Moldova, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Netherlands, Barbados, Macedonia, Estonia, Georgia, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Canada, Cuba, Slovakia.

Less than 10 births: Malta, Romania, Poland, Belarus, Greece, Hungary, South Korea, Latvia, Austria, Czech Republic, Italy, Switzerland, Ukraine, Lithuania, Croatia, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Japan, Germany, Singapore, Hong Kong, Macau.

Over the years, I increasingly remember Brian’s sermon from the Monty Python film of the same name: “Don’t listen to me! Think with your own head!” Brian, naturally, was crucified, but the people never learned to think for themselves. He still prefers to retell myths he read in the tabloids.