Expulsion of solidarity: why more than a hundred diplomats will return to Russia. Who and why refused to expel Russian diplomats

In the event of the expulsion of Russian diplomats from EU countries, Russia will be forced to respond in a mirror way, sources in diplomatic circles told Izvestia. The information was confirmed by the head of the international committee of the Federation Council, Konstantin Kosachev. Some EU countries may already today announce their decision in response to the incident in the British city of Salisbury, for which Brussels blamed the Russian Federation. Despite the absence of any evidence of Russian involvement in the poisoning of British intelligence agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter (the joint statement following the last EU summit assessed only the likelihood of this), European leaders decided to show solidarity with London. Experts interviewed by Izvestia consider the expulsion of diplomats an alarming sign, but are confident that in the medium term the situation will return to normal.

Eleven Friends of London

From the very beginning of the conflict surrounding the poisoning of ex-GRU colonel Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia on March 4 in Salisbury, England, London made every effort to ensure that this incident went beyond the scope of British-Russian relations. At the summit of European Union leaders on March 22–23, Prime Minister Theresa May convinced her colleagues that Russia, which allegedly used prohibited chemical weapons on the territory of another country, is a threat not only to Great Britain, but to the entire civilized world. At the same time, London, which expelled 23 Russian diplomats, did not hide the fact that the British are actively lobbying for the adoption of similar measures by their allies in the integration association.

Lobbying efforts were not in vain. On Friday, the European Union Ambassador to Russia, Markus Ederer, was recalled to Brussels for four weeks for consultations. And already today, individual EU member countries may announce the expulsion of Russian diplomats.

The first country where they started talking about the possibility, following the British, of declaring diplomats from the Russian Federation persona non grata, was Poland, which is not surprising given the anti-Russian attitude of its authorities. Similar sentiments, as is known, reign in the Baltic countries. At the end of last week, several Estonian officials responsible for defense issues made statements in the press that all EU member countries should follow Britain's example, but in reality only Poland and the Baltic countries would probably be ready for such a step.

Over the weekend, the list of countries potentially ready to expel Russian diplomats expanded to 11. It includes France, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Denmark and Ireland.

Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis was one of the first to openly declare this. He noted that Prague “will probably move in this direction,” that is, it will announce the expulsion of Russian diplomats, but their number will be less than 10 (in total, 48 employees work at the Russian embassy in Prague), and this measure will not affect the ambassador. Ireland was especially surprised, whose politicians, in the wake of the Salisbury scandal, unexpectedly expressed concern about the Russians’ suspicious interest in large technology companies based in the country and plans to expand the Russian diplomatic mission in Dublin, where 17 diplomats from the Russian Federation are currently accredited.

Chamberlain's response

Russia, to which the British did not give access to the substance that allegedly poisoned Skripal and his daughter, nor consular access to the latter, and most importantly, without providing evidence of Russia’s involvement in the incident, nevertheless tried to clarify its position. To this end, in the middle of last week, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs held a briefing on the “Skripal case” for all interested foreign ambassadors. But, as it became clear following the meeting on Smolensk Square, the West did not even try to hear Moscow. Instead of the protocol-provided questions to Russian representatives, diplomats from the United States, France and some other countries simply declared their solidarity with Great Britain.

In Moscow, the idea of ​​“solidarity,” which involves a transition from critical statements to the expulsion of diplomats, is considered “above common sense.” At least, this is how Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov commented to journalists on the measures being prepared by a number of EU countries. And Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted that London, which is “rushing around the world, demanding that partners follow their example,” is deliberately and artificially driving the investigation into the Skripal case into a dead end.

There is no doubt that any such decision should be met in the same way by the Russian side. Each of our opponents must clearly understand: he makes such decisions not only in relation to the number of Russian diplomatic personnel in the country, but in relation to the total number of his diplomatic representation,” Konstantin Kosachev, head of the international committee of the Federation Council, told Izvestia. - This is not our choice, but we should not leave any room for ambiguity here.

Izvestia’s sources on Smolenskaya Square also admitted that Moscow in this case will be forced to adhere to the principle of mirroring accepted in diplomacy. At the same time, one of the interlocutors noted that they do not intend to escalate the situation in Moscow, preferring to wait for official steps from the EU countries.

Which EU countries will actually agree to expel Russian diplomats will become clearer this week. So far, only Croatia has officially announced its intention not to expel Russian diplomats on Saturday following consultations between the prime minister and the president. Moreover, the president of this country, Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic, in a recent telephone conversation with her Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, not only congratulated him on his re-election, but also confirmed the invitation to the Russian leader to visit Croatia, which she voiced during a meeting with Vladimir Putin in Sochi on October 18 2017.

It is extremely unlikely that the British actions will be supported in Greece and Hungary. Judging by reports in the European press, it was precisely because of the position of the foreign ministers of these countries that a week ago London was unable to achieve an unambiguous accusation against Russia - both Budapest and Athens logically pointed out the lack of evidence of Russian involvement in the poisoning of the Skripals.

At the same time, the lack of evidence does not in any way prevent some countries from threatening Moscow with even more serious consequences. France and Germany were among the first countries to ally with the British. Following the pan-European summit, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that Paris and Berlin are considering expanding sanctions against Russia in response to the Salisbury incident. European Union President Donald Tusk added that specifics on additional restrictive measures at the EU level may appear as early as April. And Danish Prime Minister Lars Løkk Rasmussen suggested that at the next EU summit in June the issue of introducing new sanctions against Russia could be raised.

According to Bloomberg, US President Donald Trump is also allegedly thinking about the expulsion of Russian diplomats. So far, however, there is no clear decision, the agency’s interlocutors say: the head of the White House wants to see how far the Europeans will go.

At the same time, anti-Russian bias is hardly hidden. As President Macron said at the EU summit, the work of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (its experts are now studying samples of the substance in the British Port Down laboratory) “is useful, but will not change our view of things.” That is, in essence, he admitted that Europe does not need any irrefutable evidence that the nerve gas that was used to send the Skripal father and daughter, originally from Russia, is needed.

However, British specialist on Russia from the University of Birmingham and Chatham House expert Philip Hanson is confident that the current history will not become the final divide between Russia and Europe.

In a year or two, relations between Europe and Russia will return to normal. True, in the case of Britain everything will be longer and more complicated,” the expert told Izvestia.

It is noteworthy that the former British Ambassador to Russia Tony Brenton recently spoke out against the severance of relations with Russia. In an interview with The Independent, the former head of the British diplomatic mission, who worked in Moscow after the high-profile scandal with the poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko in Britain (they also tried to blame Russia for his death), recalled the incident with the arrest of 15 British sailors in Iran in 2007. According to the ex-ambassador, they were released largely thanks to the mediation of Moscow, which turned to Tehran at London’s request. Thus, Tony Brenton believes, for pragmatic reasons, it is not advisable to sever high-level diplomatic contacts with Russia.

France, Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are ready to expel Russian diplomats in connection with the Skripal poisoning, The Guardian claims

Press conference of the Russian Ambassador to Great Britain Alexander Yakovenko on the Skripal case. Photo: Kirsty O"Connor/PA Images/TASS

Updated at 15:02

“There is no other plausible explanation”: the European Council agreed that Russia was guilty of poisoning Skripal. Following the meeting of European leaders in Brussels, the EU ambassador was recalled from Moscow - for now it is reported that “for consultations.” The European Council statement admits that Russia is “highly likely” behind the assassination attempt.

EU countries intend to coordinate further response actions; in particular, the expulsion of Russian diplomats to the Czech Republic is not ruled out. “It is quite possible that we will follow this path,” said Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis. Sources add that France, Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are considering similar measures.

How painful is the mass expulsion of diplomats for Moscow and will it all end there? Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council Andrei Kortunov argues:

Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council“The question is what to compare with. If with the possibility of introducing new, especially sectoral, sanctions by the European Union against Russia, affecting the financial sector, energy or new technologies, then this, of course, is a soft answer, and the answer is more symbolic than substantive. But at the same time, of course, the answer is quite unpleasant. It will still complicate our cooperation with these countries. It is clear that this will affect the efficiency of our embassies. In addition, this is likely to provoke retaliatory measures, meaning we could again enter a cycle of escalating tensions in relations with the European Union. Probably, what is also significant is the fact that this aggravation coincides with the beginning of a new political cycle in Russia, we have had elections, a new government will now be formed, and the list of foreign policy priorities will be clarified. And, of course, there were hopes that it was with the European Union, not with the United States, but with the EU, that we would begin to restore dialogue, in particular, we talked about the Normandy Four summit, we talked about Macron’s visit to Russia at the St. Petersburg Forum. Of course, now these hopes will probably have to be adjusted somewhat, to put it mildly.

Vladimir Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov, in a conversation with reporters, urged everyone to wait for concrete decisions:

“We don’t know what data the British side was using when it discussed the topic of the Skripals with its colleagues in the European Union, we also don’t know what exactly the heads of state of the European Union agreed to when they talked about their support for Great Britain, because the Russian side, unfortunately, does not have the opportunity to obtain at least some information from the primary source on the so-called Skripal case. As for the decision made, of course, we regret in this regard that again, with the wording “with a high degree of probability,” such decisions are made and judgments of this kind are made. We do not agree with this and repeat once again: Russia absolutely clearly has nothing to do with the Skripal case.

— Is the Kremlin aware of anything about the five countries that are considering the possibility of expelling our diplomats or is it also unknown?

- No, it is unknown.

— If other EU countries nevertheless decide to expel Russian diplomats from those countries where this decision can be made, will there be any retaliatory measures here in Russia?

“We first need to wait for some decisions, understand on what basis they were made and with what wording, then we can talk about something.”

At the same time, more restrained statements were made in Brussels. In particular, Greek leader Alexis Tsipras called on his colleagues to be careful, and Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borisov warned against hasty conclusions.

The results of the first day of the EU summit are commented on by the Chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy Fyodor Lukyanov:

Chairman of the SVOP Presidium, Editor-in-Chief of the magazine “Russia in Global Affairs”“Most likely, the UK will not be able to achieve consolidated European sanctions against Russia in the Skripal case. There are several reasons here. This and generally the very specific position of Great Britain in the EU today - the country is in the process of leaving. The process is very painful, unpleasant for all parties and, in general, emotionally works to alienate Great Britain from the continent rather than vice versa - this is, firstly. Secondly, Theresa May herself, it seems to me, was somewhat overzealous in putting pressure on her partners, demanding unconditional support from them in a situation where many have questions. And thirdly, European countries have very different perceptions of Russia. There are quite a lot of states that do not and will not see Russia as the threat that Great Britain is trying to present it as. They have a different history of relations with Russia, so in total, I think that the matter will end in defeat, rather streamlined solidarity without specifics.”

However, the summit agenda is not limited to the Skripal case. Other key topics will be Brexit and US tariffs on metal imports. The new rates went into effect Friday night. March 23, but EU countries and a number of other states were given a deferment until May 1 - by this date Trump intends to make a final decision.

“When one or two diplomats, whispering apologies in our ears, are asked to leave this or that country, we know for certain that this is the result of colossal pressure, colossal blackmail, which, unfortunately, is now Washington’s main instrument in the international arena ", said the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry.

The most aggressive steps came from Washington. 48 employees of our diplomatic mission and another 12 from the UN mission will be expelled from the United States, and the Consulate General in Seattle will also be closed. At the same time, as for the pretext for such actions, former US Senate foreign policy analyst James Jatras is inclined to believe that America is not interested in an objective investigation of the “Skripal case”, because otherwise it will become clear to everyone that Russia had nothing to do with the poisoning a former GRU officer and his daughter.

“I think they just used the Skripal case to say: Here, you can quarrel with Russia more. It seems to me that now the entire foreign policy of America, and domestic policy too - just remember the investigation into Russian interference in the Trump election - is aimed at preventing relations between Russia and the United States from becoming better,” Jatras comments.

The USA and Britain were supported by 17 of the 28 EU countries, as well as Canada and Ukraine. Iceland suspends high-level diplomatic relations with Russia. As noted above, Moscow is exploring response options. Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs Konstantin Kosachev suggested that the response measures would be mirrored.

The UK continues to hurl unfounded accusations against Russia, Theresa May only talks about the “high probability” of our country’s involvement in the poisoning of Skripal. And this despite the fact that Moscow has repeatedly denied these accusations at the official level. Not a single piece of evidence - just hysteria. Britain is trying to “unite” the EU countries under the banner of a “single European family,” forgetting that it recently left this family and must pay alimony for a divorce. Political scientist Alexey Martynov recalled this in an interview with Channel Five:

“As you know, they have to pay a certain amount of penalties for the European Union. But today, speculating on Euro-solidarity, on the so-called Euro-Atlantic solidarity, Britain is trying to become the head of all European countries, being no longer a member of the European Union. An amazing paradox,” sums up the political scientist.

According to a number of experts, all this hysteria was started not only with the goal of isolating Russia in the international arena, but also to hinder its economic development. We can talk, for example, about a ban on financing Nord Stream 2. The President of the Center for Strategic Communications, Dmitry Abzalov, commented on this version for Channel Five.

Video: Channel Five

Abzalov emphasized that there is no unity in European countries on the issue of measures that are being imposed on them in connection with the “Skripal case.” After all, often these actions do not correspond to the economic interests of these countries themselves, so it is quite understandable that within the EU there were those who did not succumb to the general hysteria, colossal blackmail and threats from Washington and did not expel our diplomats. Thus, Austria stated that it would not take unfriendly steps at the national level.

“We will not expel diplomats. The reason for this is this: we intend to keep the channels of dialogue open with Russia. Austria is a neutral country and a kind of bridge between East and West,” said government spokesman Peter Launsky-Tieffenthal.

Portugal noted that it will only support those actions that will be agreed upon with the EU leadership. Malta, Bulgaria, Greece and Cyprus will not support anti-Russian steps either. Belgium, Ireland, Slovenia, Luxembourg, Slovakia should not join the demarche against Russia until all specific circumstances have been studied.

“Slovakia will not succumb to the mere belief that Russia is behind the attack. Until the accusations against the Russian Federation are supported by evidence, we will not rush,” said Slovak Prime Minister Peter Pellegrinini.

The United States failed to win Japan over to its side. The Foreign Ministry of the Land of the Rising Sun also noted that it is necessary to at least wait for the results of the official investigation. China adheres to the same position, calling for compliance with international law and not making sweeping accusations. Almost the same idea was expressed in Ankara.

Photo: facebook.com/ Konstantin Kosachev

What will Moscow's response be? Experts make different forecasts. According to some, these steps can be either symmetrical, “mirror”, or unexpected and non-standard, such as the recent cessation of the British Council’s activities in Russia. A number of political scientists believe that the West can increase pressure on our country by limiting, for example, cultural cooperation. Be that as it may, all this will only further harm international relations.

Roman Ishmukhametov

On the one hand, the West confirmed its commitment to anti-Russian solidarity. News from various countries has been arriving in recent days as reports of military operations. The day before - on Thursday - another batch of messages arrived. This time from Slovenia and Georgia, writes RIA Novosti columnist Irina Alksnis.

On the other hand, the course of events and the accompanying news leave no doubt that this time there were clearly problems with solidarity, and in order for it to take place, serious efforts were required on the part of the initiators of the process in the person of London and, apparently, Washington.

At first everything looked quite cheerful. On Monday, a whole bunch of countries unanimously announced the expulsion of Russian diplomats, then the “lagging behind” began to catch up and more and more questions arose.

Firstly, against the backdrop of the “locomotives” of the process in the form of the United States and Great Britain, expelling 60 and 23 people respectively (and, of course, Ukraine - where would we be without it in such a situation - with 13 expelled diplomats), the intentions of other states looked frankly sluggish - two or three, maximum four.

Even the usual mouthpieces of Russophobia in the form of the Baltic states came out very pale this time. Latvia and Estonia are each expelling just one Russian diplomat, and only Lithuania has stood out by deciding to get rid of three.

Secondly, it quickly became clear that quite a few countries staged a “festival of disobedience”, either delaying the decision on expulsion, or even loudly declaring that they did not intend to do so. As a result, almost everyone was “put under pressure”, convincing - if not the expulsion of Russian diplomats, then at least the recall of the ambassador, like Bulgaria and Portugal. But this happened, apparently, so brutally that leaks about London’s shameless and aggressive pressure on other capitals came from all sides.

The funniest, of course, was the story of New Zealand, which decided that it would not expel anyone, since it simply did not have Russian spies. True, this did not save her and, having been subject to obstruction from her friends, primarily Britain and Australia, the government of the country announced that it could ban the entry of several Russians associated with the Skripal case.

In fact, the only solid exception was Austria, which immediately and loudly announced that it would not even think about introducing any sanctions against Russia, and in general it has a neutral status and its task, on the contrary, is to build bridges and improve relations in the international arena.

Although it is also worth noting the position of Israel, which simply pointedly ignored this entire campaign.

Thirdly, in addition to numerous leaks about frankly obscene pressure on countries to participate in the action of expelling Russian lawyers, others almost immediately came out - already quite official statements and comments that, in essence, disavowed the participation of a number of countries in the anti-Russian campaign.

The very next day after the decision to expel diplomats, Germany finally agreed on the construction of Nord Stream 2, and then also confirmed that Russia could replace the expelled diplomats.

A very revealing comment was made by the Prime Minister of Moldova, Pavel Filip, who actually admitted that the decision to expel diplomats by the republic was made under pressure, and then also made a complimentary statement to Moscow, which ultimately created the impression of a timid attempt to apologize.

Similar news has been coming en masse in recent days from a variety of countries: from Ireland to Austria, whose Foreign Minister directly stated British pressure on his country on this issue.

Of course, it is interesting what caused the albeit quiet, but still “mutiny on the ship” of anti-Russian solidarity, in which the flagship states of Russophobic politics also took part.

Apparently, the fact that this time the reason for the scandal was very clumsily made played a role. The world has not seen such a disgrace for a long time as a six-page presentation from the British Foreign Office. Boris Johnson could have at least shown some test tube with white powder for greater persuasiveness.

But the main thing is that the true background of the situation is too obvious to all participants: the problems that Britain is trying to solve with the help of the Skripal scandal - from Brexit to US assistance in the economic confrontation with continental Europe.

It is not surprising that most countries have not shown the slightest enthusiasm in supporting London's desire to solve its problems at their expense.

At the same time, it cannot be denied that Britain and the United States have achieved their goal. Even with additional efforts and brutal pressure, they managed to force almost everyone to comply (at least formally) with the anti-Russian consensus. In this situation, a completely natural fear arises that if this was possible to do in such a legally insignificant situation as the Skripal case, then perhaps it will be possible in the future - until they ultimately achieve their goal on issues that are fundamental to them.

This certainly cannot be ruled out.

But at the same time, you can look at the situation from a different angle.

Just a couple of years ago, there were enough unsubstantiated accusations against Russia to provide an enthusiastic Western consensus on punishing Moscow. Now, claims to a special position are being made even by those countries that, according to their geopolitical status, are generally supposed to remain silent, nod and do what they are told.

There is no need to talk about serious geopolitical players. They are already doing what they see fit, not paying attention to formalities.

This means that each time ensuring anti-Russian solidarity from the organizers will require more and more effort and resources. And whether this game will be worth the candle in the near future is a big question.

Let me remind you that at the end of last week, following the summit, EU member states agreed that “very likely” Russia was in favor, and also decided to recall the EU Ambassador to Moscow Markus Ederer “for consultations” for a period of four weeks. However, according to Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, this is a measure, not a sanction.

The EU “must express solidarity with the UK and its people, but at the same time it is necessary to conduct an investigation,” Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras logically noted.

Countries supporting London are not satisfied with such demands. The results of the work of the OPCW mission (which the British nevertheless decided to invite) will only be available in a few weeks, and they, as French President Emmanuel Macron said in advance, “will be useful, but will not change the view of what is happening.” So, what's the point of delaying? According to the head of the European Council, Donald Tusk, countries can introduce measures against Moscow unilaterally.

Is this what the “parade of sovereignties” looks like now?

Russia's Judgment Day was set for March 26 - and so the EU began, as Maria Zakharova put it, a “parade of sovereignties” in the form of “loyal manifestations of political support for London by EU countries.”

Berlin is also sending home four - it is necessary to confirm the status of the leader of the EU, so she cannot “fight off the herd.” Although a real leader would never allow a situation to arise where, according to Zakharova, “a country that leaves the European Union exploits the factor of solidarity and imposes on those remaining a deterioration in relations with.”

The French also send four. Macron has good reasons for this. He (as well as Theresa May, who stirred up this mess) needs to distract the attention of his own public. At the moment, this public is seriously concerned about President Macron’s economic reforms to reduce social budget spending. The French are expressing this protest through rallies of thousands and a record drop in the ratings of the owner of the Elysee Palace.

The announcement of this list was, of course, an ill-considered step - in Prague they thought that Moscow was trying to shift the blame for the tragedy in Salisbury onto them. In addition, as the Czech Prime Minister again noted, his country is obliged to support the UK because of the 50 thousand Czechs who work there, and in general to demonstrate European solidarity, since “the economy is heavily dependent on exports to EU member countries.”

Who is bigger? Once!

Apparently, these countries will be joined by Denmark, the Netherlands and several other EU member states. At the same time, it is curious that “the most important European country” - Ukraine - even considered for some time whether it should join this collective demarche. A number of politicians in Kyiv said that they want to expel Russian diplomats, but cannot.

However, President Poroshenko ultimately decided that it was more important not to disappoint European politicians - Kyiv is expelling 13 Russian diplomats.

However, the record in this marathon is not his - according to some reports, the United States, in solidarity with its European allies, decided to expel 60 Russian diplomats and close the Consulate General in Seattle. Apparently, Washington decided that at the current level of American-Russian relations, diplomats are not needed.

Everything will be: both symmetrical and asymmetrical

As for Russia's reaction, the Kremlin is not a fan of the New Testament (“turn the other cheek”), but of the Old Testament, with its “eye for an eye.” According to Dmitry Peskov, in each case the “principle of reciprocity” will apply - that is, a similar number of diplomats will be expelled from Russia.

And, apparently, counter-sanctions will be needed not only against the United States - the British and some of their European colleagues intend to continue the offensive. So, instead of “shut up and step aside,” Defense Secretary Gavin Williamson said that “there are already warrants for the seizure of questionable property, which has recently been subject to new legislation in the UK.”

In addition, they still want to deprive Russia of . “In Russia, everything is used for political purposes, including to make Russia proud of the title of capital of world religion,” says Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linas Linkevicius. And Boris Johnson, for a reason and not at all drunk, compared the championship held in Russia with Hitler’s propaganda Olympics of 1936.

Maria Zakharova has already promised the British a “surprise” in response to these accusations. The surprise is scheduled for March 29. Let's wait - it won't be long.

But it is necessary to respond to the expulsion of employees of the Russian representative office. Perhaps by raising the issue of moving the Organization's headquarters to another place where the new owners will not abuse their powers.